Joachim Arnold Jungeilges

• Jungeilges, Jochen; Perevalova, Tatyana; Sushko, Iryna & Tramontana, Fabio (2026). Novel Mechanism of Noise-Induced Transitions Between Attractors of a 2D-Discontinuous Piecewise-Smooth Map Arising in Asset Market Modeling. International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos in Applied Sciences and Engineering. ISSN 0218-1274. 36(10). doi: 10.1142/S0218127426501397. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We consider a stochastic version of a 2D-discontinuous piecewise-linear map that describes the dynamics of a financial market model with heterogeneous traders, extended by the introduction of noisy signals that influence the market maker’s price-setting. Using Stochastic Sensitivity Function (SSF) analysis, we examine how exogenous noise interacts with coexisting attractors in this class of maps. Three findings emerge: First, we show that the SSF does not diverge near border-collision bifurcation unlike the SSF near bifurcations associated with stability loss, revealing a structural property unique to piecewise-smooth dynamics. Second, we identify and dissect a novel noise-induced transition mechanism that operates between state-space partitions caused by the discontinuity of the map, which we formalize through the concept of d-critical intensity. Third, we demonstrate that this mechanism explains stochastic phenomena previously unaccounted for, such as unidirectional and bidirectional transitions between cycles within their basins, and the emergence of ghost dynamics. These results broaden the scope of SSF analysis, provide new insights into irregular market fluctuations under noise, and may be useful in studying other applied models in the presence of stochastic forces where the dynamics are described by discontinuous piecewise-smooth maps.

• Jungeilges, Jochen; Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Pavletsov, Makar & Perevalova, Tatyana (2025). Noise-induced multistage transitions in a dynamic model of rational consumer choice. Decisions in Economics and Finance (DAF). ISSN 1593-8883. 48(2), s. 1811–1836. doi: 10.1007/s10203-025-00540-x. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The present paper aims to further develop applicable methodology for studying the effect(s) of noise in dynamic economic settings. For that purpose we analyze a two-dimensional smooth non-invertible map modeling rational consumer choice in the presence of exogenous noise. To obtain a baseline, we first study the attractors of the deterministic system representing long-run consumption patterns, their basins of attraction and bifurcation scenarios. Here, we identify and characterize two areas of the parameter space in which extreme forms of multistability exist. In one of the parametric zones, all possible forms of attractors (fixed point, cycle, closed invariant curve, and chaotic attractor) coexist. To analyze noise-induced phenomena we use the stochastic sensitivity function technique and the confidence domain method. We describe successive multistage transitions between attractors and groups of attractors and define a dominant attractor characterizing the final state of long-run consumption behavior.

• Belyaev, Alexander; Baiardi, Lorenzo Cerboni; Jungeilges, Jochen & Perevalova, Tatyana (2025). Noise-induced ecological shifts in a prey–predator model. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. ISSN 0960-0779. 199(1). doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2025.116661. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This work is devoted to the study of a map that describes the classical model of interaction between two populations of the “predator–prey” type in the presence of environmental noise. We carry out the analysis from several perspectives. First, deterministic bifurcation scenarios for attractors and their basins of attraction are studied. The critical line method is used to describe the occurrence of non-connected basins of attraction. Subsequently, we analyze the stochastic model using semi-analytical methods, namely the stochastic sensitivity function and the confidence domain method. A constructive parametric description of population extinction caused by random noise is given. An estimate of the critical noise intensity for the occurrence of the described phenomena is obtained. Finally, we provide a descriptive analysis of the extinction time series for prey and predator populations. By establishing the existence of a pronounced right-hand tail of the extinction-time density, we demonstrate that a species might avoid extinction over extended time periods.

• Jungeilges, Jochen; Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Pavletsov, Makar & Perevalova, Tatyana (2024). Consumption Dynamics in Mixed-Income Neighborhoods with Connected Households. Computational Economics. ISSN 0927-7099. 65, s. 1051–1082. doi: 10.1007/s10614-024-10774-3. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We investigate the dynamics of household consumption in a setting in which households are connected across income classes. Low- and high-income households form preferences endogenously, conditional on their own and their neighbor’s past consumption. The modeling effort relies on a stochastic dynamic model of interdependent consumer choice in which the demand for commodities evolves according to a non-linear difference equation with stochastic initial states. The analysis targets a region of the parameter space that corresponds to salient features of a mixed-income neighborhood in which households are connected. Standard methods of asymptotic analysis of dynamic systems (e.g. bifurcation analysis) are combined with numerical simulation, statistical modelling of extreme events and statistical estimation techniques to investigate the dynamics. From the mathematical point of view, our analysis reveals the existence of intricate bifurcation pattern, coexistence of multiple attractors, complex basins and long transients. The essential economic finding states that key features of household consumption vary significantly in the influence the high-income households exert on the preference formation of the low-income households. In particular, we find that the prevalence of long transients, i.e. long waiting times before convergence to asymptotic states occur, is inversely related to the type of connectedness considered. We demonstrate that the dynamics of the consumption trajectory evolving over an extended time period before it settles on long-run simple consumption pattern, may not at all be captured by an asymptotic state. Thus, policies targeting the economies in mixed-income neighborhoods that are solely based on information about long-run consumption states, might trigger unwanted, unanticipated effects.

• Jungeilges, Jochen; Pavletsov, Makar & Perevalova, Tatyana (2022). Noise-induced behavioral change driven by transient chaos. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. ISSN 0960-0779. 158. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2022.112069. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We study behavioral change in the context of a stochastic, non-linear consumption model with preference adjusting, interdependent agents. Changes in long-run consumption behavior are modelled as noise induced transitions between coexisting attractors. A particular case of multistability is considered: two fixed points, whose immediate basins have smooth boundaries, coexist with a periodic attractor, with a fractal immediate basin boundary. If a trajectory leaves an immediate basin, it enters a set of complexly intertwined basins for which final state uncertainty prevails. The standard approach to predicting transition events rooted in the stochastic sensitivity function technique due to Mil'shtein and Ryashko (1995) does not apply since the required exponentially stable attractor, for which a confidence region could be constructed, does not exist. To solve the prediction problem we propose a heuristic based on the idea that a vague manifestation of a non-attracting chaotic set (chaotic repellor) - could serve as a surrogate for an attractor. A representation of the surrogate is generated via an algorithm for generating the boundary of an absorbing area due to Mira et al. (1996). Then a confidence domain for the surrogate is generated using the approach due to Bashkirtseva and Ryashko (2019). The intersections between this confidence region and the immediate basins of the coexisting attractors can then be used to make predictions about transition events. Preliminary assessments show that the heuristic indeed explains the transition probabilities observed in numerical experiments.

• Jungeilges, Jochen; Maklakova, Elena & Perevalova, Tatyana (2021). Asset price dynamics in a “bull and bear market”. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. ISSN 0954-349X. 56, s. 117–128. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2020.08.001. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bersvendsen, Tore; Jungeilges, Jochen & Abildsnes, Eirik (2021). Empirical evaluation of home-based reablement: A review. Nordic Journal of Health Economics. ISSN 1892-9729. 9(1), s. 38–55. doi: 10.5617/njhe.7838. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen; Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Perevalova, Tatyana & Satov, Alexander (2021). Transitions between metastable long-run consumption behaviors in a stochastic peer-driven consumer network. Discrete and continuous dynamical systems. Series B. ISSN 1531-3492. 26(11), s. 5849–5871. doi: 10.3934/DCDSB.2021232. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen; Maklakova, Elena & Perevalova, Tatyana (2021). Stochastic sensitivity of bull and bear states. Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination. ISSN 1860-711X. 17. doi: 10.1007/s11403-020-00313-2. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We study the price dynamics generated by a stochastic version of a Day–Huang type asset market model with heterogenous, interacting market participants. To facilitate the analysis, we introduce a methodology that allows us to assess the consequences of changes in uncertainty on the dynamics of an asset price process close to stable equilibria. In particular, we focus on noise-induced transitions between bull and bear states of the market under additive as well as parametric noise. Our results are obtained by combining the stochastic sensitivity function (SSF) approach, a mixture of analytical and numerical techniques, due to Mil’shtein and Ryashko (1995) with concepts and techniques from the study of non-smooth 1D maps. We find that the stochastic sensitivity of the respective bull and bear equilibria in the presence of additive noise is higher than under parametric noise. Thus, recurrent transitions are likely to be observed already for relatively low intensities of additive noise.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2019). Transitions in consumption behaviors in a peer-driven stochastic consumer network. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals. ISSN 0960-0779. 128, s. 144–154. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2019.07.042. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Ekaterinchuk, Ekaterina; Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana & Sushko, Iryna (2018). Dynamics of a minimal consumer network with bi-directional influence. Communications in nonlinear science & numerical simulation. ISSN 1007-5704. 58, s. 107–118. doi: 10.1016/j.cnsns.2017.04.007. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  In a model of interdependent consumer behavior due to Gaertner and Jungeilges (1988), Gaertner and Jungeilges (1993) an individual adjusts his preferences in response to his own past consumption decisions and the observable past consumption of another individual. The resulting 2D non-invertible demand system exhibits a rich dynamics. We focus on two special cases: The baseline case of two independent consumers and a situation in which the autonomous individual 1 is viewed as a representative member of a group that serves as a {\em normative reference group} for individual 2. The consumption behavior of individual 2 is determined by his own past consumption experience as well as by the observable consumption behavior of individual 1, who is in turn not influenced by individual 2. The associated map belongs to the class of triangular maps. Our analysis focuses on the coexistence of attractors and the mechanisms underlying qualitative transformations of attractors. Relying on a mix of analytical, numerical, and graphical methodology, we demonstrate how various bifurcations occur as the importance of the individuals' own past consumption as well as the strength of influence of individual 1 on 2 varies. Economic interpretations of the observed dynamic phenomena are emphasized.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2018). Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy. Eurasian Economic Review (EAER). ISSN 1309-422X. 8(3), s. 355–380. doi: 10.1007/s40822-017-0088-7. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana; Mitrofanova, Anastasia & Popova, Irina (2018). Sensitivity Analysis of Consumption Cycles. Chaos. ISSN 1054-1500. 28(5). doi: 10.1063/1.5024033. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Ekaterinchuk, Ekaterina; Jungeilges, Jochen; Ryazanova, Tatyana & Sushko, Iryna (2017). Dynamics of a minimal consumer network with uni-directional influence. Journal of evolutionary economics. ISSN 0936-9937. s. 1–27. doi: 10.1007/s00191-017-0517-5. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2017). Noise-induced transitions in a stochastic Goodwin-type business cycle model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics. ISSN 0954-349X. 40, s. 103–115. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2017.01.003. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen (2012). Nobels Minnepris i Økonomi 2011. I Hanisch, Thor Einar (Red.), Agder Vitenskapsakademi. Årbok 2011. Portal forlag. ISSN 9788292712696. s. 166–176. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2011). State dependence in sequential equity judgements. Social Choice and Welfare. ISSN 0176-1714. 37(1), s. 97–119. doi: 10.1007/s00355-010-0482-5. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2008). A comparative study of equity judgements in Lithuania and Norway. The Journal of Socio-Economics (JSE). ISSN 1053-5357. 37(3), s. 1090–1118. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of social preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and future prospects.

• Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). On Chaotic Consistent Expectations Equilibria. Analyse & Kritik. Zeitschrift für Sozialtheorie. ISSN 0171-5860. 29(2), s. 382–382. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The notion of consistent expectations equilibria (CEE) as propagated by Hommes & Sorger (1998) is reviewed. Focusing on their example of a chaotic CEE constructred in the context of a cobweb model, it is argued that such an equilibrium is a temporary one. Assuming that an agent -- modeled as an individual versatile in applying the basic tools of linear time-series econometrics -- has learned the CEE, I analyze the duration of the time period over which the agent maintains her/his beliefs concerning the perceived law of motion (AR(1)). The analysis based on numerical simulations indicates that the use of techniques rooted in the linear paradigm is sufficient to generate convincing evidence against the underlying perceived law of motion.

Se alle arbeider i NVA

• Jungeilges, Jochen (2023). Long Transients in Economics and Finance. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen (2023). Estimating critical sensitivity of bull- and bear states in an asset market. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Nilssen, Trygve Kastberg; Jungeilges, Jochen & Ryazanova, Tatyana (2019). Modelling behavioral change in a peer-driven consumer network. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen (2017). Output volatility and savings in a stochastic Goodwin economy. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bersvendsen, Tore; Abildsnes, Eirik & Jungeilges, Jochen (2016). An Econometric Analysis of Rehabilitation Measures: A Research Protocol. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Bersvendsen, Tore; Jungeilges, Jochen & Abildsnes, Eirik (2016). An Econometric Analysis of Rehabilitation Measures. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Theisen, Theis & Jungeilges, Jochen (2010). State dependence in sequential equity judgements. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Oxelheim, Lars; Randøy, Trond & Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). GLOBALIZATION OF CORPORATE GOVERNANCE: THE AMERICAN INFLUENCE ON DISMISSAL PERFORMANCE SENSITIVITY OF EUROPEAN CEOS. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices influence the risk of European CEOs being dismissed. We hypothesize that the harsh monitoring of the American corporate governance system spills over to the rest of the world as a result of this globalization. We focus on direct and indirect American influence on the dismissal performance sensitivity among the 250 largest European publicly listed firms. The indirect influence is assumed to materialize via the European firms? cross-listing on American exchanges, whereas the direct influence is assumed to appear as a result of European firms? hiring of American independent board members. Both sources of influence are hypothesized to result in increased dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show a significant increase in this sensitivity in companies with American board membership whereas no significant increase is found from American cross-listing.

• Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Selected Topics in Econometrics. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  The mini course covered various multivariate stastical concepts and methods which have become popular in time-series econometrics.

• Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Sequential Equity Judgements: Evidence from Tanzania. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report results from sequential questionnaire-type experiments designed to elicit whether probants' intuitions in connection with distributive dilemmata are in line with the equity axiom. Based on a convenience sample of N= students of Mzumbe University, we demonstrate that the propensity of subjects to decide in accordance with the equity axiom is lower than in comparable samples in Nothern Europe.

• Jungeilges, Jochen (2007). Stochastic Dynamic Systems in economics: Potential and limits. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We provide an introduction to stochastic dynamic systems. It is demonstrated how such systems evolve quite naturally in economic theory, especially in growth theory. The second part of the talk deals with the problem of estimating the parameters of an iterated function system. Feasible solutions are sketched out. The conceptual advantages of modeling economic systems as stochastic dynamic systems are discussed.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Randøy, Trond; Oxelheim, Lars & Jungeilges, Jochen (2006). CEO compensation and dismissal risk: A European perspective. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices impact CEOs? voluntary and involuntary dismissals. Based on observations from CEO dismissals among the 250 largest European listed firms, we hypothesize that globalization in the capital market (American cross-listing) and the market for corporate control (American board membership) increase dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show no significant increase in dismissal performance sensitivity from American cross-listing, but a significant increase in such risk in companies with American board membership. We argue that this increased involuntary dismissal risk in firms exposed to American boardroom influence - as compared to firms not subject to such influence - reflects institutional contagion from the American board member(s).

• Randøy, Trond; Oxelheim, Lars & Jungeilges, Jochen (2006). Globalization of corporate governance: A European perspective. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  This study examines how globalization of corporate governance practices impact CEOs? voluntary and involuntary dismissals. Based on observations from CEO dismissals among the 250 largest European listed firms, we hypothesize that globalization in the capital market (American cross-listing) and the market for corporate control (American board membership) increase dismissal performance sensitivity. The empirical results show no significant increase in dismissal performance sensitivity from American cross-listing, but a significant increase in such risk in companies with American board membership. We argue that this increased involuntary dismissal risk in firms exposed to American boardroom influence - as compared to firms not subject to such influence - reflects institutional contagion from the American board member(s).

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2005). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences in equity judgements between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of (social) preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and in future prospects.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  A questionnaire-type experiment was conducted in Lithuania and Norway in order to generate two samples suitable for a comparative examiniation of equity judgements. The results reveal large differences in equity judgements between the two countries. Norwegian probants had a much higher propensity to decide in accordance with Rawls's second principle than had Lituanian probants. Equity judgements are also strongly dependent on the context of choice. The results are interpreted withing a framework describing the formaton of (social) preferences. More specifically, differences in observed equity judgements in the two countries are related to differences in history, experience and in future prospects.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors gender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factorsgender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

• Theisen, Theis & Jungeilges, Jochen (2002). An econometric examination of equity judgements elicited through experiments. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report the results from a questionaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factors gender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2006). State Dependence in Sequential Equity Judgements. Universitetet i Agder. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2004). A Comparative Study of Equity Judgements in Lithuania and Norway. Universitetet i Agder. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv
• Jungeilges, Jochen & Theisen, Theis (2003). An Econometric Examination of Equity Judgements Elicited Through Experiments. Universitetet i Agder. Fulltekst i vitenarkiv Vis sammendrag

  We report the results from a questionnaire-type experiment in the context of equity judgements. Norwegian students were faced with hypothetical decision situations involving various aspects of need. An all-possible-model selection strategy is used to generate parsimonious binary response models explaining the propensity to act according to an equity axiom constituent for Rawls's second principle as well as the inclination to reconsider this choice in favor of a Utilitarian alternative. The factorsgender and education are found to play an eminent role as explanatory variables. Our results support the claim that equity judgements are context dependent.

Se alle arbeider i NVA