Jose Julio Cabeza Gonzalez

Affiliated with UiA Department of Information and Communication Technology

Email: jose.j.gonzalez@uia.no
Phone: +47 37 23 32 40
Mobile phone: +47 92 03 11 61
Office: A3121 (Jon Lilletuns vei 9, 4879 Grimstad, Norway)

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Background and experience

Diplom-Physik, 1970, University of Kiel, Germany

Dr.rer.nat. (PhD in Natural Sciences), 1970, University of Kiel, Germany

Dr.techn. (PhD in Technology), 1978, NTH (Norwegian Institute of Technology), now NTNU (Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Active since 1971 in academia, since 1999 professor at the University of Agder and since 2005 adjunct professor in Gjøvik, now part of NTNU.

Professor emeritus since 1st March 2019, but still active as researcher.

Awarded by the Agder Academy of Science and Letters the Research Prize in 2012 and the Scientific Dissemination Prize in 2023.

Awarded the King of Norway's Medal of Merit for my contributions to societal security in 2019

I gave a talk at TEDs Arendal 2021 with the title "Can technology help against technology?". The talk concerns humankind’s Grand Challenges, major pandemics being among them, and methods that must be developed to deal with systemic complexity. Link to the talk: https://youtu.be/aIqqj5VcCXM

May 2025 I held the keynote "Moving Toward Systemic Risk Governance: How Can Research Achieve Societal Impact?" at The 22nd Global Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (ISCRAM2025) in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.

Areas of responsibility

In 2011 I led an initiative to fund the Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM) CIEM - Centre for Integrated Emergency Management - University of Agder. I led CIEM 2011-2014. CIEM got the status Priority Research Centre at the University of Agder.

I participated as scientific coordinator for the H2020 Smart Mature Resilience project 2015-2018 SMR :: SMR

I led 2020-2023 the innovation project Systemic Pandemic Risk Management, funded by the Research Council of Norway with participation from Stepchange AS; Kristiansand municipality; the Hospital of Southern Norway; the Centre for Integrated Emergency Management (CIEM), University of Agder; the Center for Research and Training in Disaster Medicine, Humanitarian Aid and Global Health (Italy); and the Center for Disaster Medicine and Traumatology (Sweden). The project led to five publications and it was showcased in the report Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government: The Value of Strategy Mapping, published 5th January 2023 by The IBM Center for the Business of Government. The report can be downloaded from Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government Report.pdf (businessofgovernment.org)

Teaching

As professor emeritus I do not longer teach regularly.

The last courses that I held were:

ORG453-G 17H Communication, Cooperation and Research Methods

IKT440-G ICT Seminar

IKT416 System Dynamics

IND405 System Dynamics

IND511 Value Chain Dynamics

Research

Academic interests

Publications in physics, polymer science, modelling and simulation of complex systems, system dynamics, epidemiology, instructional design, information security, insider threat, Critical Infrastructure protection, disaster management, disaster eHealth, systemic risk.

Citations: 2158, h-index: 23; i10-index: 55 (June 2025)

https://scholar.google.no/citations?view_op=list_works&hl=en&user=K4PqvOgAAAAJ

Current research interests: Security management in a broad sense (information security, safety, Critical Infrastructure Protection/Homeland Security, Emergency Preparedness and Response). Resilience. Modelling and simulation of security. Disaster eHealth. Modelling of complex societal problems. Systemic risks.

Abbas, Reem & Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Reverse Engineering of Published Work for Strategy Mapping. Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference. doi: 10.59297/wak2vn73. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
As global risks evolve, evaluating literature on crisis management and response becomes essential for addressing systemic risks in transboundary crisis scenarios. Reverse engineering (deconstructing and recreating existing research to assess and improve its findings) offers a valuable tool for generating new insights into published work on crisis management. We explore the effectiveness of reverse engineering in evaluating the internal consistency of crisis response research, using a case study on the 2014 Oso/SR530 landslide response. Using the Strategyfinder software, we demonstrate how risk mapping can identify gaps in the original analysis and contribute to the development of more robust risk models, essential for developing effective strategy maps. Additionally, we identify key methodological challenges inherent in the process of reverse-engineering including data interpretation issues and model limitations and propose solutions to address these challenges. Unravelling these complexities lays the foundation for accurate risk modelling for the development of systemic risk mitigation strategies.
Gonzalez, Jose J; Abbas, Reem & Paulsen, Sigurd (2024). Accounting for Systemic Risk in Analysis of Crisis Scenarios. In Penkert, Berthold; Hellingrath, Bernd; Rode, Monika; Widera, Adam; Middelhoff, Michael; Boersma, Kees & Kalthöner, Matthias (Ed.), 2024: Embracing the Crisis Management Lifecycle: 21st International ISCRAM Conference, University of Münster, Germany. ISCRAM. ISSN 9781802208535. doi: 10.59297/pbv5sr51. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Systemic risk is ubiquitous in our increasingly globalised world owing to the interconnections within and across sectors. However, a review of National Risk Assessments performed in OECD member countries reveals that systemic risk is rarely mentioned, and it is never accounted for in those assessments. A powerful method accounts for systemic risk and identifies mitigating strategies using participatory modelling with stakeholders: strategy mapping with Strategyfinder. The risk model is represented as a directed graph consisting of risk nodes and directed edges (arrows) expressing causal influences. The method originated in the management of large, complex projects, and it has been applied to systemic risks in critical infrastructures and pandemics. We demonstrate the Strategyfinder method using a scenario describing a cyberattack on electronic communication infrastructure leading to serious consequences for health and lives. The scenario is borrowed from the report Analysis of Risk Scenarios by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection.
Gonzalez, Jose J & Eden, Colin (2023). Devising Mitigation Strategies With Stakeholders Against Systemic Risks in a Pandemic. In Radianti, Jaziar; Dokas, Ioannis; LaLone, Nicolas & Khazanchi, Deepak (Ed.), 20th Global Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Conference (ISCRAM 2023). ISCRAM. ISSN 9798218217495. p. 1000–1013. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Understanding and managing systemic risk has huge importance for disaster risk reduction in our globally connected world. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prominent case for the global impact of systemic risk. Did so the added urgency of the pandemic systemic risk trigger such paradigm shift? The use of qualitative modelling of systemic risk has progressed the field, particularly when policy makers need support urgently and want to utilize a range of interdisciplinary expertise. We have extended to disaster risk reduction a method for causal mapping for problem solving and strategy development targeting complex project management. Our approach delivers useful, useable, and used mitigation to systemic risk in a pandemic using participatory modelling with practitioners, domain experts and power-brokers.
Abildsnes, Eirik; Paulsen, Sigurd & Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). Improving resilience against a pandemic: A novel technology for strategy development with practitioners and decision-makers. In Radianti, Jaziar; Dokas, Ioannis; LaLone, Nicolas & Khazanchi, Deepak (Ed.), 20th Global Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management Conference (ISCRAM 2023). ISCRAM. ISSN 9798218217495. p. 964–974. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
The project Systemic Pandemic Risk Management (SPRM), funded by the Research Council of Norway, has developed methods to assess and manage pandemic systemic risks. The project consortium includes an enterprise leading the project, public partners and research institutions in Norway, Sweden, and Italy. Kristiansand municipality, a partner in the SPRM project, adopted the project methods to assess and manage systemic risks. Based on a scenario about the potential spread patterns of the COVID-19 Omicron variant developed by the Norwegian Institute of Public Health, staff from Kristiansand employed the SPRM project’s approach to facilitate systemic risk assessment and management workshops. Practitioners and decision-makers from the main hospital in the Agder county and several municipalities proposed risks, their causal consequences and identified practical and impactful mitigation strategies. The strategies were implemented at the county level. The approach can improve handling of systemic risk scenarios beyond pandemics.
Eden, Colin & Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). The Strategic Management of Disaster Risk Mitigation. In Gjøsæter, Terje; Radianti, Jaziar & Murayama, Yuko (Ed.), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. Springer. ISSN 9783031342073. p. 3–19. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-34207-3_1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Systemic risks are embedded in the complex networks of an increasingly interconnected world. Achieving the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change 2015 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development require that risk mitigation involves not only experts but ‘power-brokers’ – those with the power to act. Impactful risk assessment and mitigation development requires high levels of ownership of the assessment and mitigation strategies, and so needs to be done fast and involve relatively small amounts of the power-brokers time. This requirement means that the analysis of the risk system will need to be transparent and relevant. We describe a method employing causal mapping with experts and power-brokers stakeholders. These stakeholders interactively undertake a qualitative systemic risk assessment and subsequently develop and agree strategies for risk mitigation explicitly considering (i) the direct purpose of mitigation (the other risks that are likely to be at least partly mitigated – the risks that are directly linked from the mitigated risk), and also (ii) the negative goals that will be mitigated.
Gonzalez, Jose J & Eden, Colin (2022). Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Systemic Risk Assessment and Management. In Sasaki, Jun; Murayama, Yuko; Velev, Dimiter & Zlateva, Plamena (Ed.), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction - 6th IFIP WG 5.15 International Conference, ITDRR 2021. Springer. ISSN 9783031041709. p. 121–138. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-04170-9_9. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Eden, Colin; Abildsnes, Eirik; Hauge, Martin; Trentin, Monica & Ragazzoni, Luca [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2021). Elicitation, analysis and mitigation of systemic pandemic risks. Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference. p. 581–596. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted the health care system and affected all sectors of society, including critical infrastructures. In turn, the impact on society’s infrastructures has impacted back on the health care sector. These interactions have created a system of associated risks and outcomes, where the outcomes of risks are risks themselves and where the resulting consequences are complex vicious cycles. Traditional risks assessment methods cannot cope with interdependent risks.
Ormazabal, Marta; Sarriegi, Jose Mari; Rich, Eliot; Viles, Elisabeth & Gonzalez, Jose J (2020). Environmental Management Maturity: The Role of Dynamic Validation. Organization & Environment. ISSN 1086-0266. doi: 10.1177/1086026620929058. Full text in Research Archive
Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S.; Saleh, Mohamed & Gonzalez, Jose J (2019). Analyzing Cascading Effects in Interdependent Critical Infrastructures, Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction. Springer Nature. ISSN 9783030321697. p. 50–65. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-32169-7_5. Full text in Research Archive
Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S.; Farstad, Tor-Edin & Gonzalez, Jose J (2019). Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack. In Bui, Tung X. (Eds.), Proceeding of the 52nd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS 2019). AIS Electronic Library. ISSN 9780998133126. p. 629–638. doi: 10.24251/hicss.2019.078. Full text in Research Archive
Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S. & Gonzalez, Jose J (2019). Reliability of expert estimates of cascading failures in Critical Infrastructure. In Franco, Zeno; Gonzalez, Jose J & Jose, Canos (Ed.), Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, Valencia, May 19-22 2019. ISCRAM. ISSN 9788409104987. p. 2–21. Full text in Research Archive
Save, Luca; Branlat, Matthieu; Hynes, William; Bellini, Emanuele; Ferreira, Pedro & Lauteritz, Jan Paul [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2019). The Development of Resilience Management Guidelines to Protect Critical Infrastructures in Europe. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing. ISSN 2194-5357. 819, p. 598–606. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-96089-0_65. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
The capability to be resilient in the face of crises and disasters is a topic of highest political concern in Europe especially as far as critical infrastructures and urban environments are concerned. Critical infrastructures are systems or part of systems essential for the maintenance of vital societal functions, the disruption or destruction of which would have a significant impact on the well-being of people. Examples of them are transportation services, energy infrastructures, water and wastewater systems, health and emergency services, financial services, communication infrastructures, etc. The symposium focuses on the experience of four different projects funded under the Horizon 2020 Programme: DARWIN, RESILIENS, RESOLUTE, SMR. The projects are all dealing with the application of resilience engineering, community resilience and urban resilience concepts to concrete examples of crises and situations of emergency. Such principles are translated into guidelines covering different resilience abilities that the organizations managing critical infrastructure should possess.
Radianti, Jaziar; Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S. & Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). A Conceptual System Dynamics Maturity Model of City Resilience. In Bui, Tung (Eds.), Proceedings of the 51st Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences 2018 (HICSS-51). Association for Information Systems (AIS). ISSN 9780998133119. p. 2321–2330. doi: 10.24251/HICSS.2018.291. Full text in Research Archive
Norris, Tony; Gonzalez, Jose J; Martinez, Santiago & Parry, Dave (2018). Disaster E-Health Framework for Community Resilience. In Bui, Tung (Eds.), Proceedings of the 51st Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences 2018 (HICSS-51). Association for Information Systems (AIS). ISSN 9780998133119. p. 35–44. doi: 10.24251/HICSS.2018.007. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Canos, Jose H.; Norris, Tony & Abbas, Reem (2018). Towards disaster e-Health support systems. In Boersma, Kees & Tomaszewski, Brian (Ed.), 15th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, ISCRAM 2018. ISCRAM Association. ISSN 9780692127605. p. 438–443. Full text in Research Archive
Norris, Tony; Gonzalez, Jose J; Parry, David T.; Scott, Richard E.; Dugdale, Julie Anne & Khazanchi, Deepak (2018). The Role of e-Health in Disasters: A Strategy for Education, Training and Integration in Disaster Medicine. Journal of the International Society for Telemedicine and eHealth. 6, p. 1–7. doi: 10.29086/jisfteh.6.e2. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
This paper describes the origins and progress of an international project to advance disaster eHealth (DEH) – the application of eHealth technologies to enhance the delivery of healthcare in disasters. The study to date has focused on two major themes; the role of DEH in facilitating inter-agency communication in disaster situations, and the fundamental need to promote awareness of DEH in the education of disaster managers and health professionals. The paper deals mainly with on-going research on the second of these themes, surveying the current provision of disaster medicine education, the design considerations for a DEH programme for health professionals, the key curriculum topics, and the optimal delivery mode.
Gonzalez, Jose J; Bang, Magnus; Eden, Colin; Gimenez, Raquel; Hernantes, Josune & Howick, Susan [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2017). Stalking Resilience - Cities as Vertebrae in Society’s Resilience Backbone. In Murayama, Yuko; Velev, Dimiter; Zlateva, Plamena & Gonzalez, Jose J (Ed.), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction First IFIP TC 5 DCITDRR International Conference, ITDRR 2016. Springer. ISSN 9783319684857. p. 31–45. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-68486-4_4. Full text in Research Archive
Trcek, Denis & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Understanding the Importance of Proper Incentives for Critical Infrastructures Management –HowSystem Dynamics Can Help. In Murayama, Yuko; Velev, Dimiter; Zlateva, Plamena & Gonzalez, Jose J (Ed.), Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction First IFIP TC 5 DCITDRR International Conference, ITDRR 2016. Springer. ISSN 9783319684857. p. 1–8. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-68486-4_1. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Bång, Magnus; Eden, Colin; Gimenez, Raquel; Hernantes, Josune & Howick, Susan [Show all 11 contributors for this article] (2017). Stalking Resilience: Cities as Vertebrae in Society’s Resilience Backbone. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology. ISSN 1868-4238. 501, p. 31–45. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-68486-4_4. Full text in Research Archive
Iturriza, Marta; Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S.; Labaka, Leire; Radianti, Jaziar; Sarriegi, Jose M. & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Smart Mature Resilience, System Dynamics Based Interactive Learning Environment: A Beta Version. International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering (IJSSE). ISSN 2041-9031. 7(3), p. 367–379. doi: 10.2495/SAFE-V7-N3-367-379. Full text in Research Archive
Trcek, Denis & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Understanding the importance of proper incentives for critical infrastructures management - How system dynamics can help. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology. ISSN 1868-4238. 501, p. 1–8. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-68486-4_1. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J & Trcek, Denis (2017). Proper incentives for proper IT security management – A system dynamics approach. In Ukjent, Person (Eds.), Proceedings of the 50th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2017. AIS Electronic Library. ISSN 9780998133102. p. 2388–2397. doi: 10.24251/hicss.2017.289. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Dugdale, Julie Anne & Turoff, Murray (2017). Introduction to the Communication and Information Systems Technology for Crisis and Disaster Management minitrack 2017. In Ukjent, Person (Eds.), Proceedings of the 50th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2017. AIS Electronic Library. ISSN 9780998133102. doi: 10.24251/HICSS.2017.028. Full text in Research Archive
Sakurai, Mihoko; Gonzalez, Jose J & Spiro, Emma (2017). Introduction to the Government and Disaster Resilience Minitrack 2017. In Ukjent, Person (Eds.), Proceedings of the 50th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2017. AIS Electronic Library. ISSN 9780998133102. doi: 10.24251/HICSS.2017.299. Full text in Research Archive
Sakurai, Mihoko; Gonzalez, Jose J; Watson, Richard T. & Kokuryo, Jiro (2016). A Capital Model for Disaster Resilience. Proceedings of the International ISCRAM Conference. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Labaka, Leire; Hiltz, Starr Roxanne & Turoff, Murray (2016). Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response: Generalization and Action Points. In Bui, Tung X. & Sprague, Ralph H. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 49th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2016. IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers). ISSN 9780769556703. p. 152–161. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2016.27. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J & Lenchik, Konstantin (2016). The Economics of Cybersecurity: Boomerang Effects from Misaligned Incentives, 34th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society 2016. Curran Associates, Inc.. ISSN 9781510830202. p. 959–976. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Spiro, Emma & Negre, Elsa (2016). Introduction to the resilience against crises and disasters minitrack 2016. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. 2016-March, p. 2861–2861. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2016.358. Full text in Research Archive
Webersik, Christian; Gonzalez, Jose J; Dugdale, Julie Anne; Munkvold, Bjørn Erik & Granmo, Ole-Christoffer (2015). Towards an integrated approach to emergency management: interdisciplinary challenges for research and practice. Culture Unbound. Journal of Current Cultural Research. 7(3), p. 524–540. doi: 10.3384/cu.2000.1525.1572525. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
This article presents an interdisciplinary vision for large-scale integrated emergency management that has been inspired by the transition from platform centric to inte-grated operations in the oil and gas fields, which uses remote emergency control centres collaborating virtually with local responders. The article discusses some of the most salient research challenges for integrated emergency management, including the role of mobile technology, human-centred sensing, citizen participation and social media, and the socio-cultural determinants of disaster management. The purpose of this article is to frame an integrated emergency management approach that adopts a multi-disciplinary approach, including human computer interaction, information systems, computer science, development studies and organization science employing different methodologies.Most importantly, we need to better understand the socio-cultural determinants of how people prepare to, respond and perceive disasters, in order to evaluate whether and what kind of information and communication technology (ICT) support is appropriate. There is need for more research as to why in some regions local people ignore official orders to evacuate, and rather follow the advice of local leaders, elders or religious leaders. In other instances, disasters are seen as acts of God thus shaping disaster preparedness and response.
Labaka, Leire; Qian, Ying; Lango, Peter & Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Insights from a computer simulation model of a landslide disaster. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. 2015-March, p. 192–199. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2015.32. Full text in Research Archive
Norris, Tony; Labaka, Leire; Gonzalez, Jose J; Martinez, Santiago; Madanian, Samaneh & Parry, Dave (2015). Disaster E-Health: A New Paradigm for Collaborative Healthcare in Disasters. In Palen, Leysia; Büscher, Monika; Comes, Tina & Hughes, Amanda (Ed.), 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. ISCRAM. ISSN 9788271177881. Full text in Research Archive
Radianti, Jaziar; Granmo, Ole-Christoffer; Bouhmala, Noureddine; Sarshar, Parvaneh & Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Comparing Different Crowd Emergency Evacuation Models Based on Human Centered Sensing Criteria. International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (IJISCRAM). ISSN 1937-9390. 6(3), p. 53–70. doi: 10.4018/IJISCRAM.2014070104. Full text in Research Archive
Sarshar, Parvaneh; Radianti, Jaziar & Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). On the Impacts of Utilizing Smartphones on Organizing Rescue Teams and Evacuation Procedures. In Palen, Leysia; Büscher, Monika; Comes, Tina & Hughes, Amanda (Ed.), 12th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management. ISCRAM. ISSN 9788271177881. Full text in Research Archive
Qian, Ying; Labaka, Leire; Lango, Peter & Gonzalez, Jose J (2014). Modeling the 2005 Hatlestad Slide. In Davidsen, Pål & Rouwette, Etienne A. J. A. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 32nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. System Dynamics Society. ISSN 9781935056133. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
It has long been recognized that the management of emergencies requires that response organizations act flexibly, becoming an “emergent organization” to better manage the fact that disasters do not follow scripts. Nevertheless, recent research shows that crisis response organizations prefer to follow patterns adequate for normal situations. Arguably, the resistance to become an emergent organization could be related to poor understanding of how to move from disorganization to self-organization. We present a system dynamics model describing the transition from disorganization to self-organization in the management of the fatal Hatlestad landslide in Norway. We suggest that the causal structure of the system dynamics model describing the Hatlestad case should be considered a candidate for an emergent “middle-range theory” describing the management of disorganization in emergencies. We propose specific data collection to test the candidate theory.

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Franco, Zeno; Gonzalez, Jose J & Jose, Canos (2019). Proceedings of the 16th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management, Valencia, May 19-22 2019. ISCRAM. ISBN 9788409104987. 1411 p. Full text in Research Archive
Murayama, Yuko; Velev, Dimiter; Zlateva, Plamena & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Information Technology in Disaster Risk Reduction First IFIP TC 5 DCITDRR International Conference, ITDRR 2016. Springer. ISBN 9783319684857. 268 p. Full text in Research Archive
Eckert, Hartwig & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Zielverführung: Wer für alles eine Lösung weiß, hat die Probleme nicht verstanden. Altan-Verlag. ISBN 9783930472512. 100 p. Full text in Research Archive

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Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Mental Health Crisis. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Strategy mapping of mental health crisis among US Force Veterans in Wisconsin using participatory modelling with Strategyfinder. Jose J Gonzalez facilitated a workshop with Strategyfinder. Dr Zeno Franco was trained as co-facilitator the day before the workshop.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Strategy Mapping of Systemic Risk in Disasters Using Participatory Modelling. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Systemic risks are interdependent—one risk can trigger others, creating cascading effects that are complex and difficult to manage. The Global Assessment Reports on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR2019 and GAR2022) highlight systemic risk as a key global challenge, central to the Sendai Framework, the Paris Agreement, and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Yet, the science and practice of systemic risk management remain in an early stage of development. This webinar presents a practical approach to addressing systemic risk through participatory modelling workshops using Strategyfinder™ software. The method, known as strategy mapping, guides teams in building causal models of risks, identifying relationships between causes and consequences, and designing coherent strategies for action. Drawing on network theory, these models allow for quantitative analysis and help participants identify interventions that are both impactful and feasible. Through real-world examples—particularly in the context of pandemics—the session will demonstrate how strategy mapping fosters collaboration, alignment, and shared understanding across teams. Participants will gain insights into how this structured approach can support decision-making, enhance coordination, and strengthen systemic resilience.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Gestión de riesgos sistémicos en proyectos complejos y desastres. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Los riesgos en un desastre, entendido como un evento o conjunto de eventos, causados por la naturaleza (sequías, inundaciones, pandemias, etc.) o por actitudes humanas (incendios forestales, accidentes de envergadura, etc.), son interdependientes. Cada riesgo puede causar nuevos riesgos, y las consecuencias son complejas, y difíciles de gestionar. Lo mismo ocurre con riesgos en proyectos complejos. Retrasos en el proyecto pueden generar fatiga del personal, y la fatiga aumenta la preponderancia de errores, que generan más retrasos y aún más fatiga. Cuando los riesgos son interdependientes, los riesgos forman un sistema de riesgos: riesgos sistémicos. La gestión de riesgos sistémicos requiere de mapeo estratégico colaborativo, un método de liderazgo y gestión para fomentar la dirección, la alineación y la coherencia. El mapeo estratégico ayuda a los líderes a comprender y a articular las intervenciones necesarias. El mapeo estratégico ayuda a los usuarios a visualizar las cadenas causa-efecto de un sistema y las medidas que pueden para introducir reformas, vinculando las aspiraciones con las capacidades. La charla presenta el método del mapeo estratégico con ejemplos tomados de desastres y de proyectos con sobrecostes y retrasos utilizando el software Strategyfinder™.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Analyzing Pandemic Risks from a Systemic Perspective. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
In disasters, including pandemics, the risks are interdependent. Each risk can cause new risks, and the consequences are complex and difficult to manage. When risks are interdependent, risks form a system of risks: systemic risks. The talk describes the outcomes of the Systemic Pandemic Risk Management Project (2020-2023) with participation from organizations and users in Norway, Sweden and Italy, and the adoption of the methods developed in the Systemic Pandemic Risk Management by the “Helsefelleskap Agder” (Agder Health Community), a collaboration between municipalities, hospitals and MDs in the Agder region, for preparedness and resilience in future pandemics. The IBM Center for the Business of Government showcased in 2023 the Systemic Pandemic Risk Management Project in the report Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government: The Value of Strategy Mapping. In 2024, the Future Shocks Challenge by the IBM Center for the Business of Government, the IBM Center for Business Value and the (US) National Academy of Public Administration showcased the adoption of the methods by the Agder Health Community in the report “Resilience in Action”.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Analyzing Risks from a Systemic Perspective. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
When risks are interdependent (as in pandemics) each risk can create a plethora of more risks, aka. “systemic risks”. Systemic risks manifest themselves in vicious cycles which reinforce the risks and make them very difficult to mitigate. Risks spread hierarchically. Impactful and practical mitigations strategies must address the most potent risks concerning their participation in vicious cycles and hierarchies.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Management of Systemic Risk in Disasters. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
The talk concerns management of risks in a disaster, understood as an event or set of events, caused by natural events (droughts, floods, pandemics, etc.), by human attitudes (wildfires, etc.); or by human actions (cyberattacks, etc.). In disasters the risks are interdependent. Each risk can cause new risks, and the consequences are complex and difficult to manage. When risks are interdependent, risks form a system of risks, known as “systemic risk”. Systemic risk management can be addressed with workshops using participatory modelling. Thereby teams employ strategy mapping, a facilitated management approach to foster direction, alignment and coherence. Strategy mapping builds on maps of causes and consequences of risks. The causal model is a mathematical entity known as a directed graph. Powerful algorithms from network theory allow the analysis of the causal model and the elaboration of strategies deemed impactful and practical by the team. Strategy mapping helps teams understand and articulate the necessary interventions. Workshop participants visualise the cause-effect chains of a system and the actions they can take to introduce reforms, align the actions they can take to introduce reforms, linking aspirations to capacities. The talk introduces the strategy mapping method with examples taken from disasters using the Strategyfinder™ software, as DSS.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Hvorfor sprekker store prosjekter økonomisk? Årsaker og løsninger. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Boken «Skattepengene som forsvant» fra 2018 dokumenterer mange offentlige prosjekter som kastet bort milliarder. Det ble enda verre etter 2018 (Follobanen, Regjeringskvartalet). Foredraget forklarer «systemisk risiko», mekanismen som eskalerer konsekvensene av gale beslutninger, samt beskriver fremvoksende løsninger mot systemisk risiko i prosjekter.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Management von Systemischen Risiken bei Katastrophen. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Der Vortrag befasst sich mit dem Risikomanagement bei einer Katastrophe, die als ein Ereignis oder eine Reihe von Ereignissen verstanden wird, die durch Naturereignisse (Dürren, Überschwemmungen, Pandemien usw.), durch menschliches Verhalten (Brände usw.) oder durch menschliches Handeln (Cyberangriffe usw.) verursacht werden. Bei Katastrophen sind die Risiken voneinander abhängig. Jedes Risiko kann neue Risiken verursachen, und die Folgen sind komplex und schwer zu bewältigen. Wenn Risiken voneinander abhängig sind, bilden sie ein System von Risiken: systemische Risiken. Systemisches Risikomanagement erfordert Workshops mit partizipativer Modellierung unter Verwendung von „Strategy Mapping“, einem moderierten Managementansatz zur Förderung von Richtung, Ausrichtung und Kohärenz. Das Strategy Mapping hilft den Führungskräften, die notwendigen Maßnahmen zu verstehen und zu formulieren. Weiterhin hilft Strategy Mapping den Workshop-Teilnehmern, die Ursache-Wirkungs-Ketten eines Systems und die Maßnahmen, die sie zur Einführung von Reformen ergreifen können, zu visualisieren, sowie die Maßnahmen, die sie zur Einführung von Reformen ergreifen können, aufeinander abzustimmen und die Bestrebungen mit den Kapazitäten zu verbinden. Der Vortrag stellt die Strategie-Mapping-Methode anhand von Beispielen aus Katastrophen vor, bei denen die Strategyfinder™-Software https://www.strategyfinder.com/ eingesetzt wurde.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2025). Moving Toward Systemic Risk Governance How Can Research Achieve Societal Impact? Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Studies on knowledge transfer reveal that few research outcomes influence policymaking. This is worrisome, given the urgency to achieve Grand Challenges (such as the Paris Agreement and the Agenda for Sustainable Development). Focusing on systemic risks affecting Critical Infrastructures the keynote reviews the evidence on effective mechanisms to promote research use toward the strategic management of disaster risk reduction. The talk provides recommendations for achieving useful, useable and used research outcomes influencing policymaking.
Gonzalez, Jose J & Paulsen, Sigurd (2024). Devising Assessment and Mitigation of Systemic Risks with Strategy Mapping with a Participant Group. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2024). Mapping of Complex Systems by Systems Thinking and System Dynamics Approaches – a Brief Introduction. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2024). Analyzing risks from a systemic perspective. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2024). Strategy finder: analyzing risks from a systemic perspective. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). Hvor godt står vi rustet mot utfordringen at alt henger sammen med alt? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J & Björnqvist, Anton (2023). Devising assessment and mitigation of systemic risks with strategy mapping with a participant group. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). Elaboración de estrategias contra riesgos sistémicos con Strategyfinder. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). Elaboración de estrategias de mitigación con partes interesadas ("stakeholders") contra los riesgos sistémicos en una pandemia. Full text in Research Archive
Whitlow, Danielle; Gonzalez, Jose J; Rohlfs, Russell; Kirkland, Tom & Kesavan, Arun (2023). Intelligent Infrastructure Health Monitoring: Lessons Learned and Future Directions. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2023). Modelleringsverktøy for ROS-analyse og evaluering. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2022). Opposisjonsinnlegg ved John Anderson Rincón Morenos doktordisputas i forbindelse med hans avhandling "A transition management methodological framework towards an industrial symbiosis within a circular economy". Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2022). Hemos aprendido lo suficiente de Covid-19 para gestionar mejor las futuras pandemias? Have we learned enough from Covid-19 to manage future pandemics better? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2022). Hemos aprendido lo suficiente de Covid-19 para gestionar mejor las futuras pandemias? Have we learned enough from Covid-19 to manage future pandemics better? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2022). Hvordan covid-19-pandemien har rammet oss, er tema for den niende utgaven av Kristiansandskonferansen. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2022). Tillit er samfunnets grunnkapital. Fagbladet samfunn og økonomi. ISSN 1893-3009. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Can technology help against technology? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Har samfunnet lært nok av Covid-19 til å håndtere den neste pandemibølgen bedre? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Beredskapen mot koronaen og korleis helsesektoren i Agder har takla den. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Have we learned enough from Covid-19 for managing pandemics better?". Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Systemic Pandemic Risk Management. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2021). Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic for systemic risk assessment and management. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2020). Opposisjonsinnlegg ved Marta Iturrizas doktordisputas i forbindelse med hennes avhandling "A Framework for Developing City Awareness to Climate Change". Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Resilience: more than disaster management. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Contribution of the SMR (Smart Mature Resilience) project towards the European Resilience Management Guideline. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Insights from a Simulation Model of Disaster Response. Full text in Research Archive
Farstad, Tor-Edin; Aboughonim, Ahmed Abdeltawab Abdelgawad S. & Gonzalez, Jose J (2018). Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures. Full text in Research Archive
Sakurai, Mihoko; Gonzalez, Jose J & Benaben, Frederick (2018). Introduction to the government and disaster resilience minitrack 2018. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. 2018-, p. 2320–2320. Full text in Research Archive
Dugdale, Julie Anne; Gonzalez, Jose J & Turoff, Murray (2017). Guest Editorial Preface: Special Issue on Future Research Directions for Communication and Information Systems Technology for Crisis and Disaster Management. International Journal of Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management (IJISCRAM). ISSN 1937-9390. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Stalking resilience – Cities as vertebrae in society’s resilience backbone. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Opposisjonsinnlegg ved Raquel Gimenez Duque doktordisputas i forbindelse med hennes avhandling "Building City Resilience through Collaboration". Full text in Research Archive
Murayama, Yuko; Velev, Dimiter; Zlateva, Plamena & Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). Preface. IFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology. ISSN 1868-4238. 501, p. V–VI. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2017). How does the second economy influence trends in information security? Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). Smart Mature Resilience. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). National Science Policy in Norway. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). Understanding the Importance of Proper Incentives for Critical Infrastructures Management - How System Dynamics Can Help. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). Stalking resilience - Cities as vertebrae in society’s resilience backbone. Full text in Research Archive
Dugdale, Julie Anne; Gonzalez, Jose J & Turoff, Murray (2016). Introduction to the communication and information systems technology for crisis and disaster management minitrack. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. 2016-March, p. 114–115. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2016.22. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). The Economics of Cybersecurity: Boomerang Effects from Misaligned Incentives. Full text in Research Archive
Dugdale, Julie Anne; Gonzalez, Jose J & Turoff, Murray (2016). Introduction to the Communication and Information Systems Technology for Crisis and Disaster Management Minitrack. In Bui, Tung X. & Sprague, Ralph H. (Ed.), Proceedings of the 49th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, HICSS 2016. IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers). ISSN 9780769556703. p. 114–115. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2016.22. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). Stalking resilience: Cities as vertebrae in society’s Resilience backbone. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2016). Stalking resilience: Cities as vertebrae in society’s resilience backbone. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Tillit er samfunnets grunnkapital. Agderposten. ISSN 0805-3723. p. 18–18. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Towards a Maturity Model for Resilience. Full text in Research Archive Show summary
Resilience, understood as “the ability of a system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb, accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely and efficient manner, including through the preservation and restoration of its essential basic structures and functions” (UNISDR, 2009), has become the target of numerous ambitious national and international projects. However, operationalizing resilience is a huge challenge. To accomplish resilience two tasks must be addressed: (i) characterizing vulnerabilities and resilience to disasters within existing systems, and (ii) setting priorities for mitigation efforts to improve resilience. These two tasks must address multiple sources of disasters, multiple pathways for system failure, multiple and cascading interdependencies among a wide array of infrastructure systems, disruption of existing collaborative networks, transition from disruption to self-organization of collaboration, and many potential alternative measures to reduce failure risk within and across systems, in the context of ill-defined and multi-layered governance structures. Very little knowledge exists as to how to master these challenges, which belong to a largely unexplored area – “the management of disorganization”. Maturity models, originating in quality management, have been used successfully in many domains to define a trajectory of a system towards a final, mature stage, through several intermediate stages of maturity. In the absence of secure knowledge, Lindblom’s incremental and iterative approach of “muddling through” is worth considering. In the spirit of the concept of “muddling through” we implement in the H2020 project Smart Mature Resilience a maturity model expressing the emergence of a resilience backbone with cities as vertebrae of the backbone. This requires mapping the “management of disorganization” into a maturity model with indicators and policies to proceed from immature to more mature levels of resilience and collaborative behaviour.
Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Maturing towards disaster resilience. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Evolusjonslærens evolusjon. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Turoff, Murray & Dugdale, Julie Anne (2015). Introduction to communication and information systems technology for crisis and disaster management minitrack. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. 2015-March, p. 141–142. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2015.648. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2015). Smart Mature Resilience. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2014). Ett av verdens beste land – men er Norge på rett vei? Agderposten. ISSN 0805-3723. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2014). Funderinger om den sikre gale vitens rolle. Grimstad Adressetidende. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J (2014). Står vårt hovmod for fall? Agderposten. ISSN 0805-3723. Full text in Research Archive
Gonzalez, Jose J; Turoff, Murray & Chatfield, Akemi Takeoka (2014). Introduction to the communication and information systems technology for emergency management minitrack. Proceedings of the Annual Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS). ISSN 1530-1605. p. 138–138. doi: 10.1109/HICSS.2014.25. Full text in Research Archive
Bryson, John M.; Barberg, Bill; Carroll, Anne; Eden, Colin; George, Bert & Gonzalez, Jose J [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2023). Addressing Complex and Cross-Boundary Challenges in Government: The Value of Strategy Mapping. IBM Center for The Business and Government. Full text in Research Archive

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Published Apr. 16, 2024 11:31 AM - Last modified Sep. 8, 2025 11:58 AM