Indra Nobl Øverland

• Anugrah, Pinto; Shah, Rakibuzzaman; Mithulananthan, N.; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Overland, Indra & Pradnyaswari, Indira [Show all 8 contributors for this article] (2026). Sustainable energy transition for BIMP regional power grid with technology ranking and optimal mix. Applied Energy. ISSN 0306-2619. 424. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128463. Full text in Research Archive
• Zhakanova, Aliya; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2026). The role of China, Russia, and Türkiye in the financial development of Central Asia. SN Business & Economics. 6(6). doi: 10.1007/s43546-026-01172-y. Full text in Research Archive
• Ullah, Ayat; Jakob, Michael; Bavorova, Miroslava & Overland, Indra (2026). Climate adaptation policies in Central Asia overlook mental health. Scientific Reports. 16(1). doi: 10.1038/s41598-026-35198-x. Full text in Research Archive
• Apriliyanti, Indri Dwi; Nugraha, Diwangkara Bagus & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2026). Explaining Indonesia's failed energy transition: Mapping power and support for decarbonization among government institutions and actors. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 135. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104675. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The USD 20 billion Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), REDD+, and various multilateral development bank programs all aim to facilitate decarbonization in Indonesia, but so far, the country has made little progress. Many of the existing initiatives and existing literature overlooks the political dynamics among incumbent powerful actors that shape and constrain such processes. This study draws on theories of regime resistance and institutional agency to examine how power asymmetries, competing logics, bureaucratic fragmentation, and political short-termism among central government institutions shape the implementation of decarbonization policies. The analysis is based on policy documents and elite interviews with senior officials in the Indonesian legislature, regulatory bodies and agencies, and state-owned enterprises, and reveals that resistance to decarbonization is reinforced by interactions among state bodies. Moreover, it finds that institutional power and support for decarbonization are inversely correlated: bodies with the authority to shape policy, such as the presidency and key economic ministries, prioritize (perceived) growth, energy security, and affordability while ministries and agencies with a stronger climate orientation, such as the Ministry of Environment, the Ministry of Forestry, or National Development Planning Agency, typically lack the institutional leverage to ensure change. This misalignment helps explain the limited progress on decarbonization. Resistance operates through three main mechanisms: the strategic use of policy instruments that prolong coal dependence, politicized planning processes, and the use of inter-ministerial veto points. Together, these dynamics reinforce carbon-intensive development pathways despite expanding global support for energy transition.

• Overland, Indra; Jalilov, Shokhrukh & Vakulchuk, Roman (2026). Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa irrigation project: Implications for transboundary water management in Central Asia. Environmental Research: Water. doi: https:/iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/3033-4942/ae36ca. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa irrigation project could exacerbate water scarcity and destabilize Central Asia. To ensure sustainable resource management and avert potential conflict, a multilateral water-sharing agreement must urgently be negotiated among the states involved with mediation by the international community.

• Jakob, Michael & Overland, Indra (2025). Energy trade, emissions and import dependence in Southeast Asia. npj Climate Action. 4(1). doi: 10.1038/s44168-025-00312-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In recent years, Southeast Asia has experienced rapid growth in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, the countries in the region have increasingly become net importers of fossil energy carriers. Against this backdrop, we use a novel decomposition approach to illustrate the historical linkages between energy trade and emissions in ten countries in Southeast Asia. Projecting future developments with and without additional efforts to reduce emissions, we show that an energy transition in line with climate targets laid down in the nationally determined contributions of these countries would greatly reduce their dependence on energy imports. We estimate that decarbonization could potentially reduce aggregate spending on fossil fuel imports by a total of more than USD 140 bn by 2030. Such savings could cover more than 70% of the investments in renewable energy sources required to meet these countries’ climate targets under the Paris Agreement.

• Overland, Indra & Rachman, Joseph (2025). Southeast Asia Is Eager for China's Renewable Energy. Foreign policy. ISSN 0015-7228. doi: https:/foreignpolicy.com/2025/11/14/china-energy-renewables-asean-southeast-asia/. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Renewables are in hot demand in a growing region.

• Fazeli, Reza; Do, Thang Nam; Overland, Indra & Pradnyaswari, Indira (2025). Southeast Asia faces high stranded asset risk from coal power investments. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 62, p. 101971–101971. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101971. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Southeast Asia has approximately 106 GW of active coal-fired generating capacity, behind only China, India, and the United States. The region has another 30 GW in the pipeline. If the Paris Agreement is fulfilled, there is a risk that these assets will become stranded. However, the extent of this risk remains largely unquantified. This study is the first to assess how uncertainties in renewable power development and carbon pricing affect the risk of coal-fired power plants becoming stranded assets across Southeast Asia, using a Monte Carlo-based analysis. The findings indicate that coal-fired plants currently operating or under construction could start becoming stranded assets by 2042, and that the total potential loss by 2060 could be in the range of USD 85–106 billion. If currently planned coal developments are included, the cost of stranded assets could rise to USD 100–123 billion and halve the lifetime of new coal-fired plants. To avoid future disruption and losses, it would be essential to halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants and start planning for early closures.

• Chee, Wan Choy; Ho, Wai Shin; Hashim, Haslenda; Lim, Lek Keng; Muis, Zarina Ab & Nizamuddin, Arfah Diyanah [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2025). Renewable energy trade among the ASEAN countries and the road to net-zero carbon emissions. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 62, p. 101878–101878. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2025.101878. Full text in Research Archive
• Zan, Thant Thura; Smith, Ida Dokk; Overland, Indra & Pradnyaswari, Indira (2025). Transaction costs of the Indonesian Just Energy Transition Partnership. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (EES). ISSN 1755-1307. 1511(1), p. 012012–012012. doi: 10.1088/1755-1315/1511/1/012012. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract A Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) is a climate finance mechanism comprising a host country and an International partner group (IPG). It is part of a global initiative that has committed to providing billion-dollar financial packages to selected lower-income countries. However, implementing a multilateral partnership such as a JETP requires much effort and many transactions among multiple stakeholders to be successful. Transaction costs (TCs) refer to the costs incurred by host and partner countries in the process of developing the partnership. There is a gap in the knowledge about the transaction costs associated with JETPs. By combining a scoping review of the grey literature and document analysis of JETP documents, this study provides an in-depth analysis of different types of TCs associated with JETP Indonesia and their drivers. The study finds that asset specificity, uncertainty, legitimacy, and accountability influence the TCs in the governance of the Indonesian JETP.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2025). Urban climate resilience in transition economies: the case of Central Asia. Environmental Research Letters. 20(7). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/addfee. Full text in Research Archive
• Vivoda, Vlado; Overland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman (2025). Navigating ASEAN’s critical materials future: Opportunities, risks and strategic imperatives. Mineral Economics. ISSN 2191-2203. doi: 10.1007/s13563-025-00553-3. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ASEAN plays an increasingly prominent role in the global supply of critical minerals essential for the energy transition, defence industries, medicine, and advanced manufacturing. Yet the region’s long-term position in critical mineral supply chains remains uncertain, constrained by severe environmental degradation, strategic dependencies, and institutional fragmentation. This study addresses the following central research question: How can ASEAN as a region transition from a fragmented group of critical mineral exporters to a strategically coordinated and sustainable player in global supply chains? The article offers a novel contribution to the literature by analysing three ASEAN member states’ critical mineral strategies and governance approaches with a tripartite framework tailored to ASEAN’s diverse critical minerals governance landscape. Specifically, it draws on illustrative cases from Indonesia (nickel), Myanmar (rare earth mining), and Malaysia (rare earth processing) to highlight the trade-offs and coordination challenges that define the region’s positioning in global supply chains. The analysis is structured around three interlinked imperatives: environmental sustainability, supply chain autonomy and resilience, and regional coordination and governance alignment. While Indonesia has pursued aggressive downstream integration, its strategy is undermined by environmental issues and foreign ownership. Myanmar exemplifies the environmental and strategic vulnerabilities of informal, extraction-based supply chains, while Malaysia demonstrates the potential for midstream value addition under more stable institutional conditions. The study concludes that ASEAN’s ability to assert a more cohesive and strategic role in global critical minerals markets will depend on its capacity to align national priorities with regional coordination, enhance environmental and ESG performance, and diversify investment and processing capabilities away from China-dominated supply chains.

• Aldal, Malin Øren & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2025). Does ASEAN climate policy pay sufficient attention to public transportation? Discover Sustainability. 6(1). doi: 10.1007/s43621-025-01716-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Abstract Expansion of public transportation is a climate mitigation measure with many potential co-benefits and positive externalities: reduced congestion, lower air and noise pollution, improved road safety, and poverty alleviation. Most of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) face serious challenges in all these areas. This paper therefore investigates how much emphasis the ten ASEAN member states are putting on public transportation compared to other areas in their climate policies. As the empirical basis for the analysis, a dataset was compiled of all targets and measures in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of the ASEAN countries. The analysis shows that only 2.2% of the sectoral mitigation targets and measures in the ASEAN NDCs relate to public transportation, and six of the ten NDCs have no public transportation targets or measures. These numbers are surprisingly low considering the challenges related to transportation in the ASEAN megacities and the numerous co-benefits of resolving them. Using the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework for sustainable transportation, the study finds that almost three fourths of the transportation targets and measures in the NDCs belong to the “Improve” category. This indicates that there is potential to further develop policies to “Shift” travel to public transportation and integrate them into the next round of NDC updates.

• Mohtadi, Soran; Blankenship, Brian; Hasan, Qaraman; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Tsani, Stella & Urpelainen, Johannes (2025). Gendered impacts of oil price shocks: analyzing women's labor force participation in petrostates. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 126. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104134. Full text in Research Archive
• Smith, Ida Dokk; Mamadzhanova, Gavkharkhon & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2025). Mapping the Participation of ASEAN Actors in International Climate Initiatives. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies. 12(2). doi: 10.1002/app5.70020. Full text in Research Archive
• Blankenship, Brian; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Urpelainen, Johannes & Yang, Joonseok (2025). Are Credit Rating Agencies Punishing Petrostates for Energy Transition Risks? Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy. ISSN 2160-5882. 14(1). doi: https:/www.iaee.org/eeep/article/552. Full text in Research Archive
• Blankenship, Brian; Hasan, Qaraman; Mohtadi, Soran; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Urpelainen, Johannes (2024). Oil Prices and International Conflict: Why Low Oil Revenue May Not Pacify Petrostates. International Interactions. ISSN 0305-0629. 50(3). doi: 10.1080/03050629.2024.2352486. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article explores how declining oil revenue might shape the amount of international conflict initiated by major oil producers (petrostates). We analyze four potential mechanisms through which variation in oil prices could affect petrostate conflict initiation: emboldenment, battling over a smaller market, signaling strength, and diversionary conflict. The empirical findings suggest that higher oil prices are associated with lower rates of petrostate conflict initiation. From one standard deviation below the mean oil price to one standard deviation above it, the predicted number of militarized interstate disputes declines twofold, from .025 [95% CI: .016–.034] per petrostate per year to .012 [.007–.016]. Moreover, the evidence suggests that petrostates are more likely to target other petrostates when oil prices are low. This suggests that the energy transition may not be a boon for international peace among petrostates, and for a time, it may even prove to be the opposite.

• Tongsopit, Sopitsuda; Junlakarn, Siripha; Chaianong, Aksornchan; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2024). Prosumer solar power and energy storage forecasting in countries with limited data: The case of Thailand. Heliyon. 10(2). doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e23997. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Forecasts of distributed energy resource deployment are becoming increasingly important in electric power purchase plans and difficult for countries with limited data. This study utilizes the Customer Adoption Model to forecast the deployment of behind-the-meter distributed solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems until the year 2050 and Thailand is used as a case study of the countries with limited data. Comparing methods and results from this study with those used in past studies shows that methodological choices can produce diverging results that shape investment plans and the estimated cost of power supplies. Several input variables of the Customer Adoption Model are discussed that will require continuous refinements as more data become available. The results show that pairing solar systems with batteries could in principle accelerate solar deployment and carbon emissions reduction but the high cost of batteries lengthens the payback period, raising questions about forecasting methodologies that rely mainly on the payback period. The methodological contribution points to a “chicken-and-egg” problem between forecasting and policy uncertainties: accurate forecasting depends on policy certainty, but getting policy right depends on accurate forecasting. Integrated scenario construction and the determination of a specific timeframe for achieving the adoption goal can help policymakers understand the impacts of different policy designs on distributed energy resource deployment and overcome this problem.

• Smith, Ida Dokk; Nordvold, Kristine Schi; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Osmonova, Tinatin (2024). How do donors integrate climate policy and development cooperation? An analysis of the development aid policies of 42 donor countries. Climate Policy. ISSN 1469-3062. doi: 10.1080/14693062.2024.2390522. Full text in Research Archive
• Hasan, Qaraman; Heffron, Raphael J.; Mohtadi, Soran; Blankenship, Brian D.; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Urpelainen, Johannes (2024). Stepping into the just transition journey: The energy transition in petrostates. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 113. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103553. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  With the transition towards a low carbon economy underway, the notion of ensuring that it is a just transition – one that is fair and equitable – has captured significant attention in recent decades. Although petrostates are a central part of the fossil fuel-based global economy, they have been largely ignored in discussions of a just transition. This article explores what should characterize a just transition in petrostates, as they face challenges that are distinct from those faced by major producers of other fossil fuels such as coal. We argue that the just transition should be understood comprehensively to cover climate, energy, and environmental justice. Economic reforms, particularly investment diversification, institutional reforms, and the inclusion of women, youth populations and indigenous people are practical steps for achieving a just transition within petrostates. The importance of this research is to highlight that petrostates need to begin their just transition journey. There is limited time for this to happen, and taking steps into the just transition journey will have many benefits as identified in this research such as, socio-economic, impact on public health and an increase in inward-investments. The research involves utilizing the energy justice framework and assessing the five energy justice principles: procedural, distributive, restorative, recognition and cosmopolitan. In order to assess these we utilize data from the United Nations and World Bank to explore the key issues as asset diversification, employment and recognition issues. Finally, a just transition pathway is presented for petrostates to follow on the basis of the results.

• Blankenship, Brian; Lisko, Christian; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Urpelainen, Johannes; Vakulchuk, Roman & Yang, Joonseok (2024). When do petrostates diversify their exports? Urgency, interests, and policy design in Egypt, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia. Development Policy Review. ISSN 0950-6764. doi: 10.1111/dpr.12808. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Motivation: The need to diversify their economies is an enduring challenge for fossil fuel-dependent countries, one which will become evermore important as the world seeks to decarbonize. But the conditions under which major oil-producing countries (petrostates) seek to diversify their exports—and those under which their attempts succeed—are poorly understood.Purpose: This article tests competing explanations for the successes and failures of petrostates' export diversification. Methods and approach: We employ a comparative case study approach using qualitative evidence from two comparatively successful diversification cases—Egypt and Malaysia—and one less successful case—Kazakhstan—selected using a Theil index of export concentration. Findings: The evidence indicates that Egypt and Malaysia's more successful outcomes stemmed more from necessity and policy design than from differences in domestic institutions and interests. All three countries were motivated to diversify by price volatility and declining revenues at various points from the 1980s to the 2000s and beyond, but reserve depletion was a greater threat in Egypt and Malaysia. As such, they adopted a more balanced approached to diversification, one that combined liberalization with state intervention. Policy implications: These cases suggest that petrostates may be will-ing and able to diversify as the global shift toward renewables raises the prospect of unburnable oil reserves. Petrostates can diversify efficiently by using a basket of policies that includes a mix of economic liberalization and government intervention to create investment and incentives in non-oil tradeable sectors and nurture infant industries. Opposition to reforms in petrostates can be addressed by selectively compensating vested interests.

• Jakob, Michael & Øverland, Indra (2024). Green industrial policy can strengthen carbon pricing but not replace it. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103669. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Carbon pricing has received prominent support as the key policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Yet, in the context of heightened geopolitical tensions and risks of supply chain disruptions, policy makers are increasingly resorting to green industrial policies to support the deployment of clean energy technologies. This Perspective discusses whether this development represents a paradigm shift in the design of climate policies and assesses arguments for and against carbon pricing and green industrial policies. Our analysis addresses implications for economic efficiency, security of supply, distributional concerns and political economy issues. We find that green industrial policies can support carbon pricing by lowering market barriers for clean technology diffusion and strengthening political support for climate policy. Yet, we also emphasize that a carbon price should be an essential element in any effective climate mitigation policy mix and the key is to find the optimal policy mix for carbon pricing and green industrial policies for the unique context of each location. In the EU, green industrial policy should mainly be employed to complement carbon pricing and deal with additional market barriers. In the US, by contrast, green industrial policy could be used strategically to try to build political support for and reduce resistance to a carbon price.

• Apriliyanti, Indri Dwi; Nugraha, Diwangkara Bagus; Kristiansen, Stein & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). To reform or not reform? Competing energy transition perspectives on Indonesia's monopoly electricity supplier Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN). Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 118. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103797. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper maps the opposing rationales for reforming or not reforming the giant monopoly electricity provider in the world's fourth most populous country. Indonesia's state-owned power company, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), distributes electricity to 98 % of the country's households. Only 13 % of the company's power generation is from renewable sources, while 60 % is from coal-fired power plants. PLN is sometimes cast as the main obstacle to the energy transition in Indonesia, which has a more carbon-intensive electricity sector than both China and India. How PLN evolves is therefore important for global climate mitigation. Based on document analysis and rare interviews with the high-level policymakers who govern PLN, we find that keeping consumer prices low and maintaining security of supply are the utility's dominant concerns. Indirect costs, negative environmental externalities and alternative business opportunities in renewable energy are rarely taken into consideration. This is due to entrenched elite interests and what is referred to in the theoretical literature as ‘collective conservatism’. Three measures that could change PLN's approach to decarbonisation are: redirecting government financial support, introducing more stringent carbon pricing regulations and leveraging growing private business interest in renewable energy to change the framework within which PLN operates.

• Tsani, Stella; Chitou, Chrysoula & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). Local content policies: Knowledge stock and future directions for research and policy making in view of the sustainability agenda. Environmental Science and Policy. ISSN 1462-9011. 162. doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103919. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Local content policies (LCPs) aim to create opportunities for employment and economic development, and to shield from the “resource curse” and enclave extractivism. LCPs are of ongoing policy interest in resource-rich countries and, more recently, have attracted attention in countries attempting to develop their renewable energy sources. The sustainable development agenda set by the global and regional initiatives, such as the United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement, call for a fresh look at the targets and priorities set by LCPs, e.g., extend to environmental and/or climate change action targets. This article aims to connect in a meaningful way the scientific knowledge on LCPs and evidence-based policy making with the sustainability agenda imperatives. The target is met with the: i) completion of a systematic state-of-the-art literature review and bibliometric analysis to assess and synthesize the accumulated stock of knowledge on LCPs and ii) SDGs mapping onto the LCPs. Τhe review identifies the core approaches and LCPs' assessment outcomes, indicating the plethora of findings. Results show that the relationship between LCPs and the sustainability agenda has not yet been properly analyzed in the literature, identifying thus a gap between research and contemporary policy making. The research community should be proactive: rather than just assessing LCPs' implementation, it should propose alternatives and updates to LCPs in line with the sustainability agenda. The article contributes to this direction by mapping the SDGs onto the LCPs, suggesting ways to advance research in this field and to support evidence-based policy making.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Seah, Sharon (2024). Can Asia's climate leader please step forward? Asian Politics & Policy. ISSN 1943-0779. 16(3), p. 429–449. doi: 10.1111/aspp.12754. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Asia's contribution will be decisive for the global effort to mitigate climate change. But Asia lacks a country that could take the lead and inspire the rest of the region to accelerate its climate action. To identify countries that could fulfill such a role, this article takes a two‐step, mixed‐methods approach. First, an index is created to identify some potentially leading countries. Second, the top countries identified by the index are assessed in greater detail qualitatively. The analysis finds that China, Japan, and Singapore are the most plausible candidates to take the lead. By doing so, these countries could potentially inspire their neighbors to step up their own efforts as climate change becomes an increasingly important issue in international affairs. However, to become a leader and influence their peers, they will have to make a conscious choice and dedicated effort.

• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). The failure to decarbonize the global energy education system: Carbon lock-in and stranded skill sets. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 110, p. 103446–103446. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103446. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition involves the transformation of professions and labour markets, which in turn depend on the availability of a workforce with the right education and competence. This study assesses how quickly global higher education is transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy in terms of educational content. The article is based on a review of 18,400 universities and the creation of a dataset of 6,142 universities that provide energy-specific education in 196 countries. The study compares the prevalence of educational programmes oriented towards fossil fuels and renewable energy. The findings show that the rapid adoption of renewable energy worldwide is not matched by changes in higher education, since universities continue to prioritise coal and petroleum studies. In 2019, 546 universities had faculties and/or degrees dedicated to fossil fuels whereas only 247 universities had faculties and/or degrees in renewable energy. As many as 68% of the world’s energy-focused educational degrees were oriented towards fossil fuels, and only 32% focused on renewable energy. This means that universities are failing to meet the growing demand for a clean energy workforce. At the current rate of change, energy-focused university degrees would be 100% dedicated to renewable energy only by the year 2107. Since a career may last 30-40 years, this creates a risk of long-term carbon lock-in and stranded skill sets through (mis)education. The results also indicate that developing countries lag behind developed ones in this area, even though the need for professionals trained in renewable energy is greater in developing countries. Along with lack of capital, underdeveloped regulatory frameworks for renewable energy, and entrenched fossil-fuel business interests, the mismatch between energy education and the needs of the renewable energy industry may hold back the energy transition in many developing countries.

• Abb, Pascal; Khay, Saw Kyaw Zin; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2024). Road through a broken place: the BRI in post-coup Myanmar. The Pacific Review. ISSN 0951-2748. doi: 10.1080/09512748.2024.2420929. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  In the wake of the 2021 coup, Myanmar experienced a renewed civil war that has fragmented the country along a myriad of old and new conflict lines. Despite the high-intensity violence across many regions of the country, China is still pursuing an ambitious connectivity project under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI): The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is meant to connect Myanmar to the Chinese market and boost Myanmar’s industrial development. However, the challenging post-coup environment has required significant changes in China’s approach to local infrastructure development and empowered a new set of subnational actors on both sides of the border. This article analyzes how CMEC has fared since the coup, and how the fragmentation of Myanmar has gone hand in hand with that of Chinese agency in the country. Contrary to prevailing descriptions of the BRI as a coherent, strategic, and top-down project, we argue that the case of Myanmar exposes the degree to which it is shaped by local interests and circumstances, and the limits of centralized BRI implementation. Finally, it is likely that adjustments in Chinese policy triggered by the situation in Myanmar will have more long-term consequences for the future of the BRI, specifically a more direct involvement in local security efforts and greater engagement with local authorities beyond the central government.

• Stankovic, Tatjana; Hovi, Jon; Skodvin, Tora & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). Regulating production rather than consumption? Comparing the challenges of supply-side and demand-side climate agreements. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 114. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103601. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  A growing strand of climate policy literature explores the potential for a supply-side treaty—an international agreement among fossil-fuel-producing states to reduce their output. Proponents argue that such a treaty is cost-efficient; that it is easier to enforce than a demand-side treaty; that it encourages investment in low-carbon technology; and that it addresses concerns such as “the green paradox” and “carbon leakage.” We contribute to this literature by examining the conditions under which a supply-side climate treaty can be effective and by systematically comparing the prospects for each type of agreement to overcome two major impediments—collective-action problems and distributive conflict issues. Having noted that most large greenhouse gas emitters are also major fossil-fuel producers, we conclude that mitigating anthropogenic climate change would likely be no less challenging for a supply-side treaty than for a demand-side treaty. In particular, distributive conflict remains a significant obstacle to effective climate action regardless of whether it is pursued through a demand-side treaty or a supply-side treaty.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2024). Small and large friends of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism: Which non-EU countries are likely to support it? Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 51. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2024.101303. Full text in Research Archive
• Kalantzakos, Sophia; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Decarbonisation and Critical Materials in the Context of Fraught Geopolitics: Europe’s Distinctive Approach to a Net Zero Future. The International Spectator: Italian Journal of International Affairs. ISSN 0393-2729. 58(1), p. 3–22. doi: 10.1080/03932729.2022.2157090. Full text in Research Archive
• Handayani, Kamia; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Suryadi, Beni & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Integrating 100% renewable energy into electricity systems: A net-zero analysis for Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar. Energy Reports. 10, p. 4849–4869. doi: 10.1016/j.egyr.2023.11.005. Full text in Research Archive
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra Nobl (2023). Russian nuclear energy diplomacy and its implications for energy security in the context of the war in Ukraine. Nature Energy. 8(4), p. 413–421. doi: 10.1038/s41560-023-01228-5. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the possibility of reducing Europe’s energy dependence on Russian resources has been hotly debated. The fossil fuel industries received most attention as European Union leaders first introduced gradual sanctions on Russian coal and later on oil and gas, while Russia responded with supply cuts. However, Russia’s role as a major player in the global nuclear power sector has remained largely below the sanctions radar, despite dependencies on Russian nuclear technology, uranium supplies and handling of spent nuclear fuel. Here we analyse the state nuclear company Rosatom and its subsidiaries as tools of Russian energy statecraft. We map the company’s global portfolio, then categorize countries where Russia is active according to the degree and intensity of dependence. We offer a taxonomy of long-term energy dependencies, highlighting specific security risks associated with each of them. We conclude that the war and Russia’s actions in the energy sector will undermine Rosatom’s position in Europe and damage its reputation as a reliable supplier, but its global standing may remain strong.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Loginova, Julia (2023). The Russian coal industry in an uncertain world: Finally pivoting to Asia? Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 102. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103150. Full text in Research Archive
• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Central Asian Climate Policy Pledges Under the Paris Agreement: Can They Be Fulfilled? In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 9783031298318. p. 35–49. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_4. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.

• Sulaimanova, Burulcha; Øverland, Indra Nobl; Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Energy Transition in Central Asia: A Systematic Literature Review. In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 9783031298318. p. 69–82. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  While there is abundant research on the expansion of renewable energy in developed countries, little attention has been paid to the decarbonisation of energy systems in Central Asia, despite the region’s vulnerability to climate change, its rapidly growing domestic energy demand and the abundance of natural resources essential for the energy transition. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this chapter provides a comprehensive overview of the profile and trajectory of research on energy in Central Asia between 1991 and 2022. It finds that there was a shift from focusing on fossil fuels to clean energy around 2019–2020. However, despite recent growth, research on renewables and their significance in Central Asia is still sparse. This review indicates that while American and European researchers took the lead in this field in 2012, China, Japan, Kazakhstan and Russia have emerged as the leading contributors since 2016.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Introduction to Climate Change in Central Asia. In Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (Ed.), Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISSN 9783031298318. p. 1–11. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8_1. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Central Asian region has been and will continue to be significantly impacted by climate change and all the region’s countries have pledged nation- ally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. This chapter aims to assess how likely Central Asian countries are to fulfil these pledges. To answer this question, we compare the NDCs to their respective national development programmes and historical trends. The results show that the countries of Central Asia vary in their ability to fulfil their pledges and that doing so will require structural changes to their energy systems, substantial investments in infrastructure and, most importantly, the alignment of their development plans with their declared climate goals. None of the countries have thus far engaged in structural reforms aimed at large-scale climate change adaptation and mitigation.

• Smith, Ida Dokk; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Szulecki, Kacper (2023). The EU's CBAM and Its ‘Significant Others’: Three Perspectives on the Political Fallout from Europe's Unilateral Climate Policy Initiative. Journal of Common Market Studies. ISSN 0021-9886. doi: 10.1111/jcms.13512. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  As part of the European Green Deal, the European Commission has launched a tool to protect the fulfilment of Europe's climate policy targets – the carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM). It is thought that the CBAM will spark stiff resistance from Europe's external trade partners, potentially undermining the initiative. How this plays out will depend in part on who the opponents and potential allies are – and how the European Union (EU) engages with them. But which non-EU countries have a stake in the CBAM? The criteria for selecting third countries that are relevant for the CBAM are often implicit, which can lead to contradictory policy analyses and confused climate diplomacy. This research note compares three different perspectives that result in different lists of non-EU countries that are important for the success of the CBAM. Awareness of these three perspectives amongst EU actors can help the CBAM succeed.

• Tarr, David G.; Kuznetsov, Dmitrii; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Why carbon border adjustment mechanisms will not save the planet but a climate club and subsidies for transformative green technologies may. Energy Economics. ISSN 0140-9883. 122, p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106695. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  We find that both empirical results and economic theory show that carbon border adjustment mechanisms (CBAMs) will be ineffective at meeting global goals for carbon emissions reduction; but CBAMs will be effective at improving the competitiveness of the domestic industries by assuring that imports bear equal costs of carbon pricing. We elaborate two complementary proposals that hold greater promise for meeting climate goals: (i) a Climate Club, where member countries impose a minimum price for carbon emissions at home and a tariff surcharge on all imports from non-member countries; and (ii) a 0.2%-of-GDP subsidy by high-income countries for transformative research designed to make green energy cheaper than fossil fuels. We discuss multiple paths for a Climate Club to be accommodated within the rules of the World Trade Organization and recommend use of the exception clause under GATT Article XX.

• Handayani, Kamia; Anugrah, Pinto; Goembira, Fadjar; Øverland, Indra; Suryadi, Beni & Swandaru, Akbar (2022). Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050. Applied Energy. ISSN 0306-2619. 311. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.118580. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The power sector is one of the major contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions while also being vulnerable to climate change in its own right. Accordingly, the global power sector needs to accelerate decarbonization. This paper assesses power sector pathways to net-zero emissions by 2050 for the Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). In addition to simulating a net-zero emissions scenario, the paper builds reference and renewable policy scenarios, enabling an analysis of additional measures required beyond the business as usual and current policy trajectories to achieve net-zero emissions. The LEAP simulation results indicate that under the net-zero emissions scenario, ASEAN member states need to swiftly capitalize on their currently underutilized renewable energy potential to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. By then, there will have to be a substantial transformation of the technological portfolio with variable renewable energy and energy storage coming to play central roles. The LEAP simulations also indicate that renewable and energy storage technologies are more cost-competitive than carbon capture and storage for achieving the long-term net-zero emissions goal. In the LEAP modeling, GHG emissions rise until they peak in 2029, then gradually decline until reaching zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the emission abatement cost is 16 USD/ton CO2e in the renewable policy scenario and 12 USD/CO2e in the net-zero emissions scenario.

• Szulecki, Kacper; Øverland, Indra & Smith, Ida Dokk (2022). The European Union's CBAM as a de facto Climate Club: The Governance Challenges. Frontiers in Climate. 4. doi: 10.3389/fclim.2022.942583. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The European Commission has announced far-reaching reforms to accelerate the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Among the proposals constituting the European Green Deal is the adoption of a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage. In practice, however, CBAM will not only act as a shield for the European Emissions Trading System (ETS) but also incentivize other countries to implement compatible carbon pricing schemes. We argue that the EU's CBAM thus de facto has the features of a climate club, but the current proposals and debate do not address how the club would be governed. While the literature focuses on legal and economic aspects of CBAM design, there is little debate about the governance challenges it entails. We identify two major challenges. CBAM will put pressure on trade partners to introduce carbon pricing and/or bring it into line with the price of EU ETS allowances. However, the future availability and thus price of ETS allowances is determined within the EU. Secondly, the method for calculating embedded carbon is left to the discretion of the European Commission. EU policymakers need to acknowledge the challenges that follow from setting up a de facto climate club, and that addressing them involves a trade-off between maintaining control over the direction and ambition of climate policy and CBAM's legitimacy.

• Buylova, Alexandra; Fridahl, Mathias; Nasiritousi, Naghmeh; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Reischl, Gunilla (2022). Climate action in the making: business and civil society views on the world’s first carbon border levy. Climate Action. 1(17). doi: 10.1007/s44168-022-00015-4. Full text in Research Archive
• Stankovic, Tatjana; Sending, Ole Jacob & Øverland, Indra (2022). Norges klimaomdømme på Twitter. Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 80(1), p. 221–235. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v80.3762. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ©2022 Tatjana Stankovic, Ole Jacob Sending og Indra Øverland. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY/4.0/), allowing third parties to copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and to remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially, provided the original work is properly cited and states its license.Citation: Stankovic, T., Sending, O. J. & Øverland, I. (2022). Norges klimaomdømme på Twitter. Internasjonal Politikk, 80(1), 221–235. http://dx.doi.org/10.23865/intpol.v80.3762221Årgang 80, Nummer 1, side 221–235, 2022, ISSN 1891-1757, www.tidsskriftet-ip.no, Publisert juni 2022*Kontaktinformasjon: Tatjana Stankovic, e-post: tst@nupi.noFokusartikkel – fagfellevurdertFokus: Norskklima- oguteNrikspolitikkNorges klimaomdømme på TwitterTatjana Stankovic*Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeOle Jacob SendingNorsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeIndra ØverlandNorsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt (NUPI), NorgeSammendragI denne artikkelen undersøker vi om olje- og gassproduksjonen har negativ innvirkning på Norges klimaomdømme. Dette gjør vi ved å kartlegge mel-dinger som ble lagt ut på Twitter i forbindelse med det 26. klimatoppmøtet (COP 26) i Glasgow. For å sette Norges omdømme i perspektiv, sammenlik-ner vi Twitter-meldingene om Norge og Sverige. Studien viser at det er liten forskjell mellom meldingene som omhandler Norge og Sverige når det gjelder negative holdninger. Vi finner imidlertid to trekk som er av interesse for for-ståelsen av Norges omdømme. For det første er meldingene tematisk ulike: De dominerende temaene i meldingene som nevner Sverige handler om å fremme overgangen til grønn energi og klimaaktivisme, mens de dominerende temaene i meldingene om Norge i hovedsak handler om klimafinansiering og behovet for utfasing av produksjon av fossilt brensel. For det andre er de negative meldingene om Sverige av mer generell karakter, knyttet til kritikk av alle lands manglende omstilling, mens de negative meldingene om Norge er spesifikk, knyttet til olje- og gassproduksjon.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl (2022). Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: Consequences for Global Decarbonization. Russian Analytical Digest. doi: 10.3929/ethz-b-000550755. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra Nobl; Trisos, Christopher H; Adelekan, Ibidun O; Totin, Edmond; Ayanlade, Ayansina & Efitre, Jackson [Show all 53 contributors for this article] (2022). Africa. In Pörtner, H. O.; roberts, d.c.; Tignor, M.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.; Mintenbeck, Katja; Alegria, Andres; Craig, m; Langsdorf, Stefanie; Löschke, Sina; Moller, V; Okem, Andrew & Rama, Bardhyl (Ed.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. ISSN 9780521445832. p. 1285–1455. doi: 10.1017/9781009325844.011. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra; Juraev, Javlon & Vakulchuk, Roman (2022). Are renewable energy sources more evenly distributed than fossil fuels? Renewable Energy. ISSN 0960-1481. 200, p. 379–386. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.09.046. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition literature assumes that renewable energy sources are more evenly distributed globally than fossil fuels. This assumption implies that the shift from fossil fuels to renewables will enable more countries to pursue energy self-sufficiency and end their dependence on imported energy. However, if the assumption is wrong, the energy transition will depend on transboundary electricity or hydrogen trade, creating new international relationships and opportunities for both cooperation and conflict. The contribution of this study is to test the assumption of the even distribution of renewable energy resources on a quantitative empirical basis. Lorenz curves are compared and Gini coefficients calculated for three types of fossil fuels and three types of renewable energy in 161 countries. The study concludes that renewable energy is indeed more evenly distributed than fossil fuels. This finding lends support to claims that energy transition will bring about a more decentralized global energy system centered on prosumer countries with few long-distance energy relationships. However, the difference between the evenness of the distribution of renewable energy resources and that of fossil fuel reserves is not as great as the literature assumes. International trade in energy, and by extension international energy politics, will not disappear entirely.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Huda, Mirza Sadaqat (2022). Climate clubs and carbon border adjustments: a review. Environmental Research Letters. 17(9). doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac8da8. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra & Suryadi, Beni (2022). ASEAN’s energy transition: how to attract more investment in renewable energy. Energy, Ecology and Environment. ISSN 2363-7692. 8, p. 1–16. doi: 10.1007/s40974-022-00261-6. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition is progressing slowly in the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). To achieve ASEAN’s target of 23% renewables in the primary energy supply by 2025, the region would need to invest USD 27 billion in renewable energy every year. However, the ASEAN countries attracted no more than USD 8 billion annually from 2016 to 2021. Through a comparative review of three key factors for attracting investment—renewable energy legislation, energy governance reform, and general conditions for investors—this study examines why the region’s renewable energy sector has not attracted more capital. The contribution of the article is threefold. First, it develops a new review model for assessing the business climate for renewable energy in any country. Second, it offers an update on the state of renewable energy deployment in the ASEAN countries. Third, taking into account international best practices, it identifies the obstacles and solutions to attracting investment in renewable energy in Southeast Asia. The article finds that carbon lock-in is pervasive, regulatory practices have been copy-pasted from the fossil-fuel sector to the renewables sector, and, except for Malaysia and Vietnam, no ASEAN country has implemented a major pro-renewable energy governance reform. Certain advanced renewable energy measures, such as auctions and feed-in tariffs, have been adopted in some member states, but the institutional capacity to implement them is limited. The share of renewables in the energy governance system needs to be increased.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Daloz, Anne Sophie; Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum & Standal, Karina (2022). A void in Central Asia research: climate change. Central Asian Survey. ISSN 0263-4937. doi: 10.1080/02634937.2022.2059447. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article assesses the extent to which the academic community engaged with climate change in Central Asia between 1991 and 2021. The article finds that climate change has been neglected in the field of Central Asia area studies. Out of a total 13,488 journal articles in eight key journals for Central Asia research, only 33 articles (0.24%) were on climate change or a related topic. Climate change has been similarly neglected at the events of 17 Central Asia area studies associations. Out of 1305 conference panels, none was focused on climate change. Out of 10,249 individual presentations, only two (0.02%) were focused on climate change. The very same scholars who have been most active in the securitization of Central Asia have ignored the severe security threats that climate change poses to the region. The article contributes to the field of Central Asian studies by drawing attention to severe knowledge gaps that hinder the Central Asian countries from adapting to climate change. It concludes with six recommendations.

• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra; Vakulchuk, Roman & Xie, Yanhua (2022). The environmental burdens of special economic zones on the coastal and marine environment: A remote sensing assessment in Myanmar. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment (RSASE). 28. doi: 10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100809. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra Nobl & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2022). Know your opponent: Which countries might fight the European carbon border adjustment mechanism? Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215. 169. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113175. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The European Union (EU) plans to activate a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) in January 2023. This is meant to secure fair competition for European energy-intensive industries, incentivize countries both inside and outside the EU to cut emissions, and hinder carbon leakage from the EU. Early reactions from some large economies suggest that CBAM will encounter significant international opposition, especially from countries whose industry is dependent on fossil fuels. The purpose of this paper is to identify which countries are likely to resist CBAM most fiercely. This is done by creating a multidimensional CBAM Opposition Index based on the following indicators: trade with the EU, carbon intensity, litigiousness in the World Trade Organization (WTO), domestic public opinion on climate change, and capacity for innovation. The analysis indicates that the following countries are most likely to mount opposition to CBAM: Iran, Ukraine, the USA, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, China, India, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus. How the EU handles opposition from these countries will be decisive for the fate of CBAM. The index can serve as a tool for policymakers inside and outside the EU who need to negotiate over CBAM and want to anticipate the stances of other countries and understand their drivers.

• Smith, Ida Dokk; Øverland, Indra & Lahn, Bård Lappegård (2022). Klimaklubbkvaler. Internasjonal Politikk. ISSN 0020-577X. 80(1), p. 184–196. doi: 10.23865/intpol.v80.3765. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Norges internasjonale klimapolitikk har alltid hatt som målsetting å oppnå et mest mulig enhetlig globalt klimaregime. Parisavtalen reflekterer i stedet – og bidrar til å forsterke – et fragmentert klimaregime med et mylder av nye samarbeidsformer mellom land. I denne artikkelen trekker vi frem tre trender som preger det nye klimaregimet: et skifte fra klima- til grønn industripolitikk; økende spenning mellom klima- og handelspolitikk; og tettere sammenkobling mellom klima- og petroleumspolitikk. Vi viser hvordan nye klimaklubber både lager nye spilleregler og oppstår som motsvar til disse. Vi ønsker med dette å vise hvordan et fragmentert klimaregime fører til nye rammevilkår og utfordringer for norsk klimapolitikk. Klimaklubbkvalene omfatter både problemstillinger knyttet til hvem Norge skal samarbeide med og hvordan slikt samarbeid skal formaliseres, men også konsekvensene av å samarbeide med noen fremfor andre.

• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman (2021). Environmental performance of foreign firms: Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar. Journal of Cleaner Production. ISSN 0959-6526. 312(127701). doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.127701. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Little is known about how the environmental approaches of foreign investors in developing countries are formed. The objective of this study is to conceptualize and investigate the drivers of the environmental performance of foreign firms. This is done through a comparative analysis of the environmental profiles of Chinese and Japanese firms in Myanmar. Applying institutional and resource-based theories, the study investigates the complex and multifaceted roles that domestic regulations and internal resources of firms play in their environmental performance. The study contributes to the literature on corporate environmental behaviour by constructing a novel set of environmental variables connected with FDI. The research is based on survey data covering 296 Chinese and 125 Japanese companies operating in Myanmar. The data are analysed using a hierarchical multiple linear regression. It is found that Japanese companies tend to adopt all-inclusive and comprehensive strategies driven by both regulatory pressure and firm capacity when addressing environmental issues, while the environmental choices of Chinese companies tend to be driven by intra-firm resources. For Chinese companies, neither ownership type nor operating in a polluting industrial sector necessarily influence the environmental profile, whereas both of these variables had significant effects on the environmental performance of Japanese firms. The findings indicate that both resource-based and institutional theories are useful when assessing the influence of environmental regulations on FDI in developing countries.

• Øverland, Indra; Bourmistrov, Anatoli; Dale, Brigt; Irlbacher-Fox, Stephanie; Juraev, Javlon & Podgaiskii, Eduard [Show all 10 contributors for this article] (2021). The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index: A method to rank heterogenous extractive industry companies for governance purposes. Business Strategy and the Environment (BSE). ISSN 0964-4733. 30(4), p. 1623–1643. doi: 10.1002/bse.2698. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Arctic Environmental Responsibility Index (AERI) covers 120 oil, gas, and mining companies involved in resource extraction north of the Arctic Circle in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Finland, Norway, Russia, and Sweden. It is based on an international expert perception survey among 173 members of the International Panel on Arctic Environmental Responsibility (IPAER), whose input is processed using segmented string relative ranking (SSRR) methodology. Equinor, Total, Aker BP, ConocoPhillips, and BP are seen as the most environmentally responsible companies, whereas Dalmorneftegeophysica, Zarubejneft, ERIELL, First Ore-Mining Company, and Stroygaz Consulting are seen as the least environmentally responsible. Companies operating in Alaska have the highest average rank, whereas those operating in Russia have the lowest average rank. Larger companies tend to rank higher than smaller companies, state-controlled companies rank higher than privately controlled companies, and oil and gas companies higher than mining companies. The creation of AERI demonstrates that SSRR is a low-cost way to overcome the challenge of indexing environmental performance and contributing to environmental governance across disparate industrial sectors and states with divergent environmental standards and legal and political systems.

• Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Isataeva, Aidai; Øverland, Indra; Pranadi, Aloysius Damar; Suryadi, Beni & Vakulchuk, Roman (2021). Local and global aspects of coal in the ASEAN Countries. In Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (Ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781789908763. p. 45–63. doi: 10.4337/9781789908770.00012. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (2021). In quest of sustainable politics and economics of natural resources: a summary of contributions and future research directions. In Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (Ed.), Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISSN 9781789908763. doi: 10.4337/9781789908770.00008. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Kozlova, M. & Øverland, Indra (2021). Combining capacity mechanisms and renewable energy support: A review of the international experience. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. ISSN 1364-0321. 155. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2021.111878. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Isataeva, Aidai; Kolodzinskaia, Galina; Simpson, Nicholas Philip & Trisos, Christopher [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). Funding flows for climate change research on Africa: where do they come from and where do they go? Climate and Development. ISSN 1756-5529. doi: 10.1080/17565529.2021.1976609. Full text in Research Archive
• NamDo, Thang; Do, Thang Nam; Burke, Paul J.; Nguyen, Hoang Nam; Nguyen, Hoang Nam & Øverland, Indra [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2021). Vietnam's solar and wind power success: Policy implications for the other ASEAN countries. Energy for Sustainable Development. ISSN 0973-0826. 65. doi: 10.1016/j.esd.2021.09.002. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This study analyzes the factors that have facilitated Vietnam's recent rapid solar and wind power expansion and draws policy insights for other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). A policy-mix analysis focusing on targets, incentive instruments, enabling regulations, and policy implementation is carried out, informed by semi-structured interviews with 20 Vietnamese experts during the period January–March 2021. A comparative analysis between Vietnam and the other ASEAN countries provides policy insights. Generous feed-in tariffs are found to have been a key driver, with income tax and land lease payment exemptions also being important. The main barriers include a high level of policy uncertainty and an underprepared transmission grid. Vietnam's case indicates that a strong price signal and a supportive investment environment can pave the way for rapid solar and wind power uptake. Another key lesson is that early preparation of transmission systems for solar and wind electricity is needed to maximize the potential for expanding the use of these technologies.

• Aung, Thiri Shwesin; Øverland, Indra; Vakulchuk, Roman & Xie, Yanhua (2021). Using satellite data and machine learning to study conflict-induced environmental and socioeconomic destruction in data-poor conflict areas: The case of the Rakhine conflict. Environmental Research Communications (ERC). 3(2). doi: 10.1088/2515-7620/abedd9. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This paper studies socioeconomic and environmental changes in the neighboring areas Bangladesh-Myanmar border from 2012 to 2019, thus covering the period before and after the 2017 Rakhine conflict in Myanmar and outflux of refugees across the border to Bangladesh. Given the scarcity and costliness of traditional data collection methods in such conflict areas, the paper uses a novel methodological model based on very-high-resolution satellite imagery, nighttime satellite imagery, and machine-learning algorithms to generate reliable and reusable data for comparative assessment of the impacts of the Rakhine conflict. Assessments of welfare and environmental risks using this approach can be accurate and scalable across different regions and times when other data are unavailable. Key findings are: the general livelihood situation has worsened and income sources shrunk in Rakhine; forced migration damaged the ecologically fragile regions in the two countries; the destruction of aquaculture wetland ecosystems is observed in Rakhine; the deforestation rate reached 20% in Rakhine and 13% on the Bangladeshi side of the border. The results can provide guidance to policymakers and international actors as they work to repatriate the victims of the conflict in Rakhine and minimize the conflict’s security and environmental consequences. The methodology can be applied to other data-poor conflict and refugee areas in the world.

• Øverland, Indra; Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Merdekawati, Monika; Suryadi, Beni & Utama, Nuki Agya [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). The ASEAN climate and energy paradox. Energy and Climate Change. 2. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2020.100019. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article carries out a multisectoral qualitative analysis (MSQA) and policy integration analysis of six sectors important for climate mitigation in Southeast Asia in order to assess the status of the climate-energy nexus in the region. It concludes that Southeast Asia will be heavily affected by climate change but the mitigation efforts of the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are incommensurate with the threat they face. Their nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement are modest, they have a low proportion of renewable energy in their energy mixes, a modest target for raising the share of renewable energy and they are not likely to reach this target. The ASEAN countries have also been slow to adopt electric vehicles and to accede to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while continuing to burn their forests, channel subsidies to fossil fuels and invest in new coal power plants. If ASEAN accelerated decarbonization, it could seize business opportunities, secure its standing in the international political system and climate justice discussions, and increase its chances of reaching the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra (2021). Resource extraction, environmental concerns and social license to operate in Kyrgyzstan. In Sternberg, Troy; Toktomushev, Kemel & Ichinkhorloo, Byambabaatar (Ed.), The Impact of Mining Lifecycles in Mongolia and Kyrgyzstan : Political, Social, Environmental and Cultural Contexts. Routledge. ISSN 9781003097341. p. 168–182. Full text in Research Archive
• Stančík, Andrej; Osicka, Jan & Øverland, Indra (2021). Villain or victim? Framing strategies and legitimation practices in the Russian perspective on the European Union’s Third Energy Package. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.101962. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman & Øverland, Indra (2021). Central Asia is a missing link in analyses of critical materials for the global clean energy transition. One Earth. ISSN 2590-3330. 4(12), p. 1678–1692. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.11.012. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The energy transition is causing a surge in demand for minerals for clean energy technologies, giving rise to concerns about the sources and security of supplies of critical materials. Although Central Asia was one of the Soviet Union's main sources of metals and industrial minerals, it has been forgotten in contemporary global critical materials analyses. Here we review the Central Asian mineral resource base and assess its current and potential contributions to global supply chains. We find that the importance of Central Asia lies mainly in the diversity of its mineral base, which includes mineable reserves of most critical materials for clean energy applications. This renders the region important in mineral economics, security of supply, and geopolitical perspectives alike. In sum, Central Asia is likely to become a new hotspot for mineral extraction and a major global supplier of selected critical materials for clean energy technologies.

• Poussenkova, Nina & Øverland, Indra (2021). Corporate and Environmental Responsibility Among Russian Oil Companies. In Pereira, Eduardo Guedes; Spencer, Rochelle & Moses, Jonathon (Ed.), Sovereign Wealth Funds, Local Content policies and CSR. Developments in the Extractives Sector. Springer Nature. ISSN 9783030560911. p. 545–565. Full text in Research Archive
• Graaf, Thijs Van de; Øverland, Indra; Scholten, Daniel & Westphal, Kirsten (2020). The new oil? The geopolitics and international governance of hydrogen. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 70. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101667. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Tsani, Stella (2020). Sovereign Wealth Funds and Public Financing for Climate Action. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. ISSN 2523-7403. Climate Action. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-71063-1_130-1. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Øverland, Indra & Scholten, Daniel (2020). Renewable energy and geopolitics: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. ISSN 1364-0321. 122, p. 1–12. doi: 10.1016/j.rser.2019.109547. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article reviews the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy. It finds that while the roots of this literature can be traced back to the 1970s and 1980s, most of it has been published from 2010 onwards. The following aggregate conclusions are extracted from the literature: renewable energy has many advantages over fossil fuels for international security and peace; however, renewable energy is thought to exacerbate security risks and geopolitical tensions related to critical materials and cybersecurity; former hydrocarbon exporters will likely be the greatest losers from the energy transition. Many of the reviewed publications share some weaknesses: a failure to define “geopolitics”; an unwarranted assumption that very little has been published in the field previously; limited use of established forecasting, scenario-building or foresight methodologies; a lack of recognition of the complexity of the field; a lack of theorisation. Most authors do not distinguish between the geopolitical risks associated with different types of renewable energy, and only a few distinguish clearly between the geopolitics of the transitional phase and the geopolitics of a post-energy transition world. A disproportionately large part of the literature is dedicated to critical materials and cybersecurity, while only a small part concerns the decline of former fossil fuel powers. Among those publications that do discuss the decline of fossil fuels, there is also an over-focus on oil producers and a lack of attention to the countries that rely heavily on coal, for example Australia, China, Germany, Indonesia, Poland and the United States.

• Øverland, Indra; Kozlova, Mariia & Collan, Mikael (2020). Russian Renewable Energy: Regulations and outcomes. In Hunter, Tina; Anchustegui, Ignacio Herrera; Crossley, Penelope & Alvarez, Gloria M (Ed.), Routledge Handbook of Energy Law. Routledge. ISSN 9781138324459. p. 201–217. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Krutikhin, Mikhail (2020). OPEC and Russia: A Happy Pro Forma Marriage. In Garavini, Giuliano & Claes, Dag Harald (Ed.), Handbook of OPEC and the Global Energy Order. Routledge. ISSN 9780367195656. p. 241–251. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra; Bradshaw, Michael; Kuzemko, Caroline; Bridge, Gavin; Goldthau, Andreas & Jewell, Jessica [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Covid-19 and the politics of sustainable energy transitions. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 68, p. 1–7. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101685. Full text in Research Archive
• Mark, SiuSue; Øverland, Indra & Vakulchuk, Roman (2020). Sharing the Spoils: Winners and Losers in the Belt and Road Initiative in Myanmar. Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs. ISSN 1868-1034. 39(3), p. 381–404. doi: 10.1177/1868103420962116. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article studies the impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on economic actors in Myanmar. It hypothesizes that the BRI has strong transformative potential, because Chinese projects are likely to transform Myanmar’s economy on different scales and influence the allocation of economic benefits and losses for different actors. The study identifies economic actors in Myanmar who are likely to be most affected by BRI projects. It also discusses how BRI-related investments could affect the country’s complex conflict dynamics. The article concludes with policy recommendations for decision makers in Myanmar, China, and the international community for mitigating the BRI’s possible negative impacts. The analysis draws on secondary sources and primary data collection in the form of interviews with key actors in Hsipaw, Lashio, and Yangon, involved with and informed about the BRI in Myanmar at the local, regional, and national levels.

• Sabyrbekov, Rahat & Øverland, Indra (2020). Why choose to cycle in a low-income country? Sustainability. 12(18). doi: 10.3390/SU12187775. Full text in Research Archive
• Øverland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2020). Why Choose to Cycle in a Middle-Income Country? Sustainability. 12(18), p. 1–14. doi: 10.3390/su12187775. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Research on the adoption of the bicycle as a means of transport has been booming in high-income countries. However, little is known about bicycle adoption in lower-income countries where air pollution is high and cycling infrastructure is poor. Understanding the drivers of cycling adoption in developing economies can increase the efficiency of transport policies while reducing local air pollution, improving health, and cutting greenhouse gas emissions. The objective of this study is to identify the factors affecting cycling uptake in a low-income country using the city of Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan as a case study. The analysis is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, a questionnaire-based survey of 900 respondents, factor analysis, and a logit model. In contrast to studies carried out in developed countries, this study finds that students are less likely to adopt cycling than other population groups. Other findings suggest that support for public transport, a desire for regular exercise and perceptions of the environmental benefits of cycling increase the probability of the use of cycling as a mode of transport in a low-income country. The paper also identifies positive and negative perceptions of cycling among cyclists and non-cyclists.

• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2020). Energy democracy as a process, an outcome and a goal: A conceptual review. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 69, p. 1–14. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101768. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  ‘Energy democracy’ has evolved from a slogan used by activists demanding a greater say in energy-related decision-making to a term used in policy documents and scholarly literature on energy governance and energy transitions. This article reviews the academic literature using a combination of three methodological elements: (1) keyword searches of major bibliographical databases for quantification purposes; (2) an innovative method referred to as ‘circulation tracing’ to assess impact; and (3) in-depth discussion of the theoretical underpinnings, implications and interconnections of different parts of the literature. A conceptual framework is developed around three divergent understandings of the term ‘energy democracy’: (1) a process driven forwards by a popular movement; (2) an outcome of decarbonisation; and (3) a goal or ideal to which stakeholders aspire. The review also highlights some weaknesses of the literature: fragmentation between its European and American branches, which barely relate to each other; implicit or absent linkages between ‘energy democracy’ and broader theories of democracy; a tendency to idealise societal grassroots; confusion about the roles of the state, private capital and communities; and lack of attention to the threat posed by energy populism. Proponents should not assume that more energy democracy will inherently mean faster decarbonisation, improved energy access or social wellbeing. Finally, more emphasis should be placed on the role of research in providing evidence to ground energy democracy-related analyses and discussions.

• Scholten, Daniel; Bazilian, Morgan; Øverland, Indra & Westphal, Kirsten (2020). The geopolitics of renewables: New board, new game. Energy Policy. ISSN 0301-4215. 138. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111059. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This policy perspective sums up the main input of four members of the Research Panel for IRENA's Global Commission on the Geopolitics of the Energy Transformation. The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable energy systems are fundamentally different from those of coal, oil, and natural gas. This has implications for interstate energy relations and will require early attention if states are to exploit opportunities and address challenges. We point to six clusters of renewables' geopolitical implications that will manifest themselves over different time horizons. Overall, a generally positive disruption is foreseen, but also one that raises new energy security challenges. Moreover, while renewables will eventually render energy relations more horizontal and polycentric, achieving a smooth transition will not be easy. Renewables alter arenas of energy interaction, transforming markets and shifting trade partners, and reshape patterns of cooperation and conflict among countries. One possible outcome is a world of continental-sized grid communities made up of prosumer countries that continuously strategize between secure domestic production and cheap imports. Political action is required to manage, inter alia, industrial competition, stranded assets, availability of electricity and storage capacity, critical materials, and rivalry over ownership of key infrastructure assets.

• Øverland, Indra; Bazilian, Morgan; Uulu, Talgat Ilimbek; Vakulchuk, Roman & Westphal, Kirsten (2019). The GeGaLo index: Geopolitical gains and losses after energy transition. Energy Strategy Reviews. ISSN 2211-467X. 26, p. 1–16. doi: 10.1016/j.esr.2019.100406. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This article presents the GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses that 156 countries may experience after a full-scale transition to renewable energy. The following indicators are considered for inclusion in the index: fossil fuel production, fossil fuel reserves, renewable energy resources, governance, and conflict. Some of these represent potential gains; some represent losses; and some the capacity of countries to handle changes in geopolitical strength. Five alternative versions of the index are developed to work out the optimal design. First, the energy resource indicators are combined with equal weights to create two simple versions of the index. Next, governance and conflict indicators are included to create three more complex versions of the index. The index provides useful pointers for strategic energy and foreign policy choices: geopolitical power will be more evenly distributed after an energy transition; Iceland will gain most; Russia may be one of the main holders of stranded geopolitical assets; China and the USA will lose more geopolitically than foreseen by other analyses. The index also indicates a lack of emphasis in parts of the literature on space for renewable energy infrastructure and on domestically sourced coal for the current strength of countries such as China and the United States.

• Øverland, Indra & Sovacool, Benjamin K. (2019). The misallocation of climate research funding. Energy Research & Social Science. ISSN 2214-6296. 62. doi: 10.1016/j.erss.2019.101349. Full text in Research Archive

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• Sabyrbekov, Rahat; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Vakulchuk, Roman (2023). Climate Change in Central Asia: Decarbonization, Energy Transition and Climate Policy. Springer. ISBN 9783031298318. doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-29831-8. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This chapter provides a broad introduction to the impact of climate change in Central Asia, a region that has been experiencing a greater rise in temperatures than other parts of the world. The chapter shows how climate change represents a significant threat to Central Asia, exacerbating existing economic and environmental challenges and fueling regional tensions over resource management. Inefficient water resource management at the national level and limited regional collaboration on the management of water resources, coupled with state capacities that remain insuffi- cient to tackle climate change impacts, compound water-related tensions between the countries in the region. The chapter also shows how decarbonisation efforts in Central Asia are still in their early stages, with coal remaining a primary source of energy. Although the Central Asian countries have announced decarbonisation targets and adopted green economy strategies and programmes to reduce green- house gas emissions, a large-scale clean energy transition remains unlikely in the short term. The chapter concludes by identifying a lack of scholarship on climate change in Central Asia, which limits the development of a coherent approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation and evidence-based decision-making in the region. The chapter argues that a more coordinated approach to tackling climate change across the region is needed, requiring closer collaboration and more effective joint management of natural resources by the five Central Asian states. Finally, the chapter presents the chapters in the rest of the book.

• Tsani, Stella & Øverland, Indra (2021). Handbook of Sustainable Politics and Economics of Natural Resources. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 9781789908763. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This timely Handbook draws together insightful analyses of natural resource management challenges and solutions in the face of sustainable development targets and a changing global climate.

• Øverland, Indra & Poussenkova, Nina (2020). Russian Oil Companies in an Evolving World: The Challenge of change. Edward Elgar Publishing. ISBN 9781788978002. 264 p. Full text in Research Archive

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• Maglia, Cristiana; Sending, Ole Jacob; Bøås, Morten; Coning, Cedric Hattingh de; Eriksen, Stein Sundstøl & Karlsrud, John [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2024). Emerging powers, the G20, and reform of multilateral institutions. Norsk utenrikspolitisk institutt. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Emerging powers are becoming increasingly important in the global economy, are being courted for support by both the US and China and make up a powerful bloc within informal governance institutions such as the G20. They also voice increasingly vocal calls for reform of the UN, the World Bank and the IMF. This report analyzes how Brazil, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and South Africa see key reform issues and how they prioritize among different foreign policy objectives in the context of the agenda of the G20.

• Szulecki, Kacper; Øverland, Indra Nobl & Aldal, Malin Øren (2023). Comparing Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement: A Systematic Review (and Methodological Proposal?). Full text in Research Archive
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2021). Climate Club Europe : Global implications of the European Green Deal and governance strategies for a ‘de facto climate club’. Full text in Research Archive
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2021). The Nuclear Energy Weapon: Russia’s Plan B in a Decarbonizing World? Full text in Research Archive
• Szulecki, Kacper & Øverland, Indra (2020). Energy Democracy and its Limits. Full text in Research Archive
• Sending, Ole Jacob; Bones, Stian; Neumann, Iver Brynild; John, Taylor St; Berge, Tarald Gulseth & Beaumont, Paul David Hagen [Show all 37 contributors for this article] (2025). Trump 2.0 og internasjonal politikk. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Bekmuratov, Dastan; Boshell, Francisco; Smith, Ida Dokk; Garcia, Isaac Elizondo & Mamadzhanova, Gavkharkhon [Show all 14 contributors for this article] (2024). Critical materials for renewable energy: Improving data governance. IRENA. ISSN 9789292606312. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  With increasing global demand for critical materials, the call for greater transparency in global supply chains and markets – including data availability – has been growing. The global transition to renewable energy relies on a rapidly expanding and uninterrupted supply of these critical materials for manufacturing renewable energy technologies, energy storage systems and electric vehicles (EVs). Establishing a more unified, open and transparent data repository for critical materials supply chains could support more effective governance. Without such a repository, decision-makers may be less informed about critical materials markets, potentially slowing the supply of materials to international markets and hindering the deployment of renewable energy. This report highlights the importance of unified data repositories to enhance governance and decision-making in critical materials markets, emphasising how data opacity can impede renewable energy deployment. It examines major existing data sources on critical materials and reviews the key actors involved in their governance, including national government institutions, international organisations and foundations, mineral associations and commercial data providers. The report reviews initiatives aimed at improving data availability in other sectors, using them as potential models for critical materials data management. Drawing on lessons from these initiatives, it highlights the principles and content of such a database, as well as the benefits of establishing a unified data repository for critical materials to enhance data transparency, access, and quality in critical materials markets.

• Øverland, Indra Nobl; Bekmuratov, Dastan; Boshell, Francisco; Smith, Ida Dokk; Garcia, Isaac Elizondo & Gibson, Benjamin [Show all 13 contributors for this article] (2024). Constructing a ranking of critical materials for the global energy transition. IRENA. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The number of critical material lists is growing - a designation that can attract capital to the supply chain for these materials. It also triggers initiatives to promote higher environmental and social standards for mining and processing, generates pressure for more transparent supply chains, enhances international collaboration on supply, and can help avoid potential supply-demand imbalances that could delay the energy transition. The report presents a methodology for constructing a global ranking of critical materials for renewable energy applications, aiming to fill gaps in existing lists by providing a truly global perspective. It discusses several findings and their impacts, highlighting the dynamic nature of mineral supply chains. These chains are influenced by geopolitical, regulatory, and technological changes, posing challenges for predicting future critical materials. This report provides a set of recommendations for policymakers and market actors. These recommendations outline strategies for establishing and maintaining critical material lists, with the overarching goal of ensuring a reliable supply of these essential resources.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Isataeva, Aidai; Kolodzinskaia, Galina; Øverland, Indra & Sabyrbekov, Rahat (2022). Fossil Fuels in Central Asia: Trends and Energy Transition Risks. Central Asia Regional Data Review . Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  This data article provides an overview of fossil fuel trends in Central Asia from 2010 to 2019. Data on the production, consumption, export and import of coal, natural gas and oil are summarised for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. While promoting renewable energy, Central Asia continues to rely on and expand the use of coal, natural gas and oil with no major phase-out plans yet on the horizon.

• Sending, Ole Jacob; Bang, Guri; Melchior, Arne; Spets, Andrine; Svendsen, Øyvind & Sverdrup, Ulf [Show all 7 contributors for this article] (2021). EUs grønne giv – implikasjoner for norsk europapolitikk. Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Full text in Research Archive
• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Malaysia: How to Scale Up Investment in Renewable Energy. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 8.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Malaysia set a target of 20% renewables in the energy mix by 2025, an 18% increase from the 2% it had in 2018. One of the planned measures is the development of large-scale solar power. To reach the target, it will be necessary to attract a total of USD 8 billion of renewable energy investment during this period. Considering the fact that Malaysia attracted only USD 2.5 billion from 2006 to 2018, the country will need to attract USD 1.3 billion on average every year from 2019. To achieve this, it will need to undertake serious reform measures to improve the investment climate for renewables and conditions for renewable energy deployment. Given the ever-increasing global competition for renewable energy investment, the rapid implementation of such reforms becomes an imperative. This in turn requires strong governance. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Malaysia’s investment climate for renewable energy to 2025 and beyond: reform energy governance in favour of renewable energy; ensure streamlined management of the regulatory framework for renewable energy; develop a framework for easier grid connection and use; enhance awareness-raising measures for investors; make market entry easy and attractive.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Myanmar: How to Become an Attractive Destination for Renewable Energy Investment? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 9.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Myanmar is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources, and its solar potential is the greatest in the Greater Mekong Subregion – yet, this potential remains largely untapped. The country’s 50% electrification rate remains the lowest in ASEAN, and the government plans to electrify the entire country by 2030. The share of renewable energy in the energy mix is expected to rise from less than 1% in 2020 to 12% in 2025. In addition to expanding electricity access, renewable energy could also stimulate much-needed employment and economic growth in Myanmar. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Myanmar for renewable energy investment: strengthen renewable energy governance; join IRENA and intensify capacity building; adopt a feed-in tariff or auction mechanism; build a regulatory framework for renewable energy; simplify the business environment for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Vietnam: Six Ways to Keep Up the Renewable Energy Investment Success. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 13.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Vietnam is one of the most attractive destinations for renewable energy investment in ASEAN. In 2018, the country attracted USD 5.2 billion. In 2019, the share of renewable energy in the energy mix was 9%, thus already exceeding the 7% target set for 2020. If Vietnam is to continue its success and compete globally for investment in renewable energy, it will need to further develop its investment climate. The competition is heating up in this area, and an increasing number of countries have similar conditions and frameworks for renewable energy investment. Therefore, every improvement may help boost a market’s relative attractiveness. We propose six actions that can further enhance the attractiveness of Vietnam’s renewable energy sector for investment from both domestic and international investors: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; streamline the regulatory framework; facilitate market entry for investors; improve transparency and communication about the investment regime; improve grid expansion planning; join IRENA to further build the capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Singapore: How to Attract More Investment in Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 11.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Singapore has limited renewable energy potential due to its small surface area and the limited space available. Solar power has the greatest potential. Given the country’s limited spare land, rooftops and vertical spaces on high-rise buildings are of particular importance. Singapore set a target of producing solar energy to cover 350,000 households in 2030 that would be equivalent to 4% of the country’s current electricity demand. In 2019, solar energy accounted for less than 1% of Singapore’s total energy mix. We propose four actions to improve the investment climate for renewable energy in Singapore: develop incentive and regulatory support mechanism; consolidate solar energy governance; mobilise equity investors and lenders; specialise in the long-distance trade of renewable energy, especially in the form of hydrogen.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Thailand: Improving the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 12.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Thailand is among ASEAN’s renewable energy leaders. It attracted more than USD 10.7 billion of investment in renewable energy from 2006 to 2018. The country’s total installed capacity of renewable energy represented over 60% of the total capacity of ASEAN in 2019. Renewables accounted for 15% of its energy mix in 2018, and a target of 30% in 2036 was set. Despite this, during 2018–2019, Thailand experienced relative stagnation in terms of attracted investment. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Thailand’s investment climate for renewable energy in both the short and long term: set up a dedicated ministry for governing renewables; expand and improve the regulatory framework; capitalise on its peer-to-peer energy trading experience; simplify market entry for foreign investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Lao PDR: How to Attract More Investment in Small-Scale Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 7.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Lao PDR adopted the Renewable Energy Development Strategy in 2011 and set a target of 30% small-scale renewables in the energy mix by 2025. The country relies heavily on large hydropower in electricity production and is an attractive investment destination for hydropower. At the same time, Lao PDR has also significant small-scale hydro and solar power potential. We propose five actions that can improve the investment climate in Lao PDR for small-scale hydropower, solar and wind energy: establish an autonomous government agency for renewables; join IRENA and build capacity for renewable energy governance; adopt a feed-in tariff and build a robust regulatory framework; develop a roadmap for small-scale renewable energy; facilitate market entry for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). The Philippines: How to Leapfrog from a Complicated Renewable Energy Sector to an Attractive One. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 10.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  The Philippines set the target of increasing the share of renewable energy in its energy mix from 16.9% in 2019 to 26.9% by 2030. This ambitious target requires significant additional investment in renewable energy. It has been estimated that the Philippines could attract USD 20 billion in renewable energy investment through auctions between 2020 and 2030. To achieve this, the investment climate for renewables needs to be improved. Over the last few years, other ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand have been viewed as more attractive markets by foreign investors. We propose five actions that can improve the attractiveness of Philippines’ investment climate for renewable energy and help it join the regional race for investment: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; enforce existing regulatory and fiscal policies; raise the targets and develop an investment roadmap; facilitate market entry for renewable energy investors; build capacity for renewable energy governance.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Brunei Darussalam: How to Build an Investment Climate for Renewable Energy? ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 4.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Brunei Darussalam has yet to make major progress in renewable energy and become an attractive destination for investors. Only 0.05% of Brunei’s electricity came from renewable energy sources, while 99.95% was based on fossil fuels. In 2014, the country set a renewable energy target of 10% in the power generation mix by 2035. To reach the target, it needs to increase the share of renewables by 0.66% every year from 2020 to 2035. The country still needs to adopt a regulatory regime to scale up the development of renewable energy, particularly solar energy, which is more abundant than wind energy. We propose five actions to build the investment climate for renewable energy in Brunei Darussalam: prioritise renewable energy in the governance system; adopt and implement key legislation; mobilise domestic investors; improve market entry for foreign investors; join IRENA and expand capacity building.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Indonesia: How to Boost Investment in Renewable Energy. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 6.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Indonesia, the largest country in Southeast Asia, has considerable renewable energy potential. However, this potential remains largely underexploited. Fossil fuel subsidies are a major obstacle to the deployment of renewable energy on a large scale. Investment in renewable energy is limited compared to some regional peers. For instance, Vietnam attracted USD 5.2 billion of investment in renewables in 2018, while Indonesia drew only USD 0.8 billion. We propose six actions that could help Indonesia accelerate the expansion of renewables: remove subsidies for fossil fuels; establish a ministry of renewable energy; prioritise renewables in the regulatory framework; improve and streamline grid management; mobilise domestic banks to support renewable energy; prioritise market entry for investors.

• Vakulchuk, Roman; Chan, Hoy-Yen; Kresnawan, Muhammad Rizki; Merdekawati, Monika; Øverland, Indra & Sagbakken, Haakon Fossum [Show all 9 contributors for this article] (2020). Cambodia: Five Actions to Improve the Business Climate for Renewable Energy Investment. ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). Policy Brief No 5.. Full text in Research Archive Show summary

  Cambodia has not attracted significant investment in renewable energy until mid-2020 and, unlike other ASEAN countries, has not set exact renewable energy targets. Despite this, the country is viewed as a model to learn from for other ASEAN countries implementing solar power auctions. In order to keep up this momentum and attract more investment, Cambodia needs to address a number of persistent gaps in its investment climate. We propose five actions that may have strong immediate benefits and make Cambodia’s business climate for renewable energy more attractive: prioritise renewables in the energy governance system; request support from IRENA for capacity building; adopt targets and develop a regulatory framework; enhance project bankability; improve market entry for foreign investors.

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